Pick: Giants @ 2.25; 125; 5/4
Pick: 1st TD Hakeem Nicks @ 10.0; 900; 9/1
Pick: Over 53 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: Anytime TD
Deion Branch @ 2.88; 180; 15/8
Chad Ochocinco @ 8.0; 700; 7/1
Aaron Hernandez @ 2.2; 120; 6/5
BJGE @ 2.0; 100; Evens
Pick: Eli Manning TD Passing Yards Buy @ 56
Pick: New York Sack Exchange Buy @ 38
Pick: MVP Eli Manning @ 2.9; 190; 19/10
I wrote on the 7th January:
I’m loving the Giants. I like their balance on offense –
Manning has been clutch and Cruz is a devastating deep threat. The two headed
running game can give them options on offense too. Their defense is coming
together, particularly up front where Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and the
returning Osi Omenyura could severely limit opposition QBs. They look worth
backing if only for trading purposes.
Pick: NFC Champs New York Giants @ 15.0; 1400 ;14/1
Pick: Super Bowl winner New York Giants @ 26; 2500; 25/1
I also wrote:
Defense wins Super Bowls
Of the 45 teams to win Super Bowl titles, 38 had top-10
defenses.
Brady had better get some help, any help, from his awful
defense. Spotting teams 20+ points in the post-season won’t work. The New
England defense is last in yards given up in the AFC. Consider this too, the
only two opponents on New England's schedule that finished above .500 were the
Steelers and the Giants, and the Pats lost both those games.
Pick: Super Bowl winner Lay New England Patriots
I think that all still holds (I’m not that smart, I picked
Green Bay to repeat) but New York have come on more since then and, with a
touch of luck, have arrived in Indy with more than a live chance.
My only concerns are:
There’s a considerable body of opinion that says the Giants
are going to win – 61% of the money has come for the G-men and not only do I
not trust the herd, but Vegas rarely gets the Super Bowl wrong and the Patriots
are still favoured.
New York’s players are telling everyone who’ll listen they’re
nailed on - hubris is dangerous against a coach as smart as Bill Belichick and
a QB as capable as Tom Brady.
Beating New England twice in a season is breathing rarefied
air – only three teams have ever managed it against the ‘Belichick and Brady’
Patriots, primarily because no current HC can read and adapt to an opposition
the way Belichick can.
But I’m still taking the New York Giants.
Here’s why:
Brady struggles with teams that can pressure him bringing only
four pass rushers. The Giants can do just that with Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin
Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and Mathias Kiwanuka; four DEs, working side by side in
what the Giants call their NASCAR package.
Ordinarily, New York would drop their TEs into extra protection
if Brady came under pressure, but with Gronkowski carrying an injury, they may
struggle to keep Brady upright. Belichick and Brady will mix it up at the line
and try to spread out the Giants’ D, but I suspect Brady will find it tough
tonight.
However, we are talking about Tom Brady here, and the Giants
are definitely weak on the back end, so if he does find time, he can attack using
Welker in the slot and the best TE one two in the game. Antrel Rolle was owned
by Vernon Davis in the NFC title game and the Giants will have a nightmare
dealing with the TEs at safety let alone Welker.
On that front, it’s worth taking an interest in Deion Branch
and even possibly Chad Ochocinco, because these two are often left in single
coverage and one is a fine receiver, while the other was, but is the kind of
showman that pops up into the limelight when he’s no right to.
The other element that can keep Brady out of pressure
situations is a ground game; New England hasn’t a strong one to be honest, although
the committee goes to BenJarvus Green-Ellis close in, so he might be worth a
touch to score. The Giants though, are tough against the run and shouldn’t be
troubled by Danny Woodhead and his buddies.
Eli Manning made the call pre-season and was as good as his
word; he’s an elite QB, no argument. He usually
made a couple of howling mistakes a game, but this year he has been very
efficient – witness his 32 for 58 for 316 yards and 2 TDs with no interceptions
against the much vaunted San Francisco defense in the NFC Championship game.
Manning had better be at it today though, because although the Patriots are poor
on defense they are ball hawks, ranking second in the NFL in interceptions and
have made progress lately as a unit.
It helps of course, that Manning has a receiving corps of
Nicks, Cruz and Manningham; New York has never had two 1,000 yard receivers and
although Nicks has a gimpy shoulder, they should all get plenty of looks today.
Nicks is having an outstanding post-season and again, is worth an interest to
score.
Although not in the same class as Gronkowski/Hernandez, the
G-Men have also managed to discover a serviceable TE in Jake Ballard and his
backup, Travis Beckum, has emerged in the last three games.
With Andre Carter missing, there isn’t much of a pass rush
coming Eli’s way, and crucially he goes into this game with all his offensive
options available – when the Giants beat the Pats in Week Nine, Hakeem Nicks
and Ahmad Bradshaw were missing.
Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are important here. While New
England have a somewhat lacklustre backfield, New York do at least have a bona
fide ground attack. Bradshaw/Jacobs add balance and although New England’s run
D is underrated, the rushing and catching out of the backfield change up can
keep the Pats’ shaky secondary vulnerable, as Belichick will be unable to drop
everyone into coverage for fear of giving up yards from scrimmage. It also
makes clock management much easier if Manning can hand it off and offers him
protection.
Rob Gronkowski - THE man on offense this season in the NFL.
Modern TEs are redefining the position and Gronkowski is in the vanguard; 265lbs
of muscle ranging across the whole field. His injury is the most talked about
for a while and although it’s always difficult to get a read on Belichick when
he releases his injury lists, it appears he really is struggling and that is a
disaster for the Pats.
That injury, the Giants’ pass rush, Eli Manning’s form, his receivers
and runners and the Pats secondary makes me lean towards the Giants, despite Belichick’s
genius, Brady’s talent and TEs that terrify. Two dodgy secondaries and trigger
men this good, playing in a dome should mean points too.
Enjoy!
