MLB Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox ESPN 12am

I've been hammering away at the runline now and it has not gone well. Last night was another choker, with the ChiSox going 3-13 RISP, plating 4 runs on 11 hits and I got stymied by the Rays' 3 runs on just 4 hits.

The maths of this bet are well documented, but essentially, if you assume the heavy favourite wins the game, the chance of them beating the runline too are about 70%. This rises even further for the road favourite turned into a dog by betting the runline.

Tonight's game sees two sides on contrasting streaks (Det L3; Bos W3)

Scherzer is 0-2 with an 11.81 ERA - his highest against any opponent - in four starts versus Boston, but has shown marked improvement recently and even in the midst of serving up a high ERA on the season has K'd a ton of batters.

Beckett is coming off three quality starts and this Tigers' lineup is hitting .262 against him. He's solid at home, but is mighty short, so I'll flog the dead horse once again.

Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 @ 6/4; 2.5; 150

MLB - Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays ESPN 6pm

I'm looking forward to this game; two young pitchers who've shown some form since coming up face off in the final game of the series, with the White Sox looking for the sweep and their eighth win off the belt.

Alex Cobb appears to be what the Rays hoped he'd be and seems to belong in the majors. Cobb is 2-0 on the season with a 2.25 ERA. Jose Quintana, more of a surprise success, is going into his second start of the season after four hitting the Indians over six innings last Friday.

The difference should be on offense; the South Siders have been hammering the cover off the ball recently, hitting .328 (righties at .379) L5 or .308/.299 L10 if you prefer a larger sample size. The Rays however, are hitting only .190/.180 L5 (.211/210 L10)

I can't have Quintana at the price SU, so I'll take one more run at the mathematics of turning road favourites into dogs on the runline and settle back with a cup of tea and a slice of cake.

Pick: Chicago White Sox -1.5 @ 13/8; 2.62; 162

MLB - Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox ESPN 12am

According to Jon Lester, "Verlander is Verlander. He's tough". You can't say fairer than that, although it's not the greatest baseball revelation of our times.

Verlander is 0.54/1.12 WHIP/ERA L3 and 3-2 with a 2.78 ERA lifetime against the Red Sox. This Boston lineup is hitting .209 against him.

Daniel Bard has made an unsteady move from the bullpen to the starting rotation and is walking far too many batters for his health; he has 28 strikeouts on the season ... and a terrifying 29 walks.

The price for Detroit is too short, and as this appears to be a favourable run line situation (although the price is still pretty skinny) I'll give the runs again.

Pick: Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ 21/20; 2.05; 105

MLB - San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs ESPN 7.20pm

A couple of clubs who are a collective 4-16 in their last 20 means that we're unlikely to see a lot of dazzling baseball from Wrigley Field this afternoon.

Jeff Samardzija has been strong at home (2-1, 0.84/1.52 WHIP/ERA) and the Padres are hitting just .238 L5, so the Cubs shouldn't have to put too many runs up to take the game.

Eric Stults has solid enough numbers. He has been lit up by the Cubs before, but it was long enough ago that the memory should have faded, that said, the remaining members of the Chicago lineup are hitting a collective .421 against him, with a .476 OBP.

I like the Cubs, who are hitting .270 L5, to reach Stults today, so I'll give the runs to wring out some value. 

Pick: Chicago Cubs -1.5 @ 29/20; 2.45; 145

MLB - Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants ESPN 10pm

Not a game that fills me with deep joy, but it looks as though Barry Zito is vulnerable after struggling on the mound L3. Cahill's numbers recently aren't particularly inspiring, but he had a strong outing last time. Arizona are hitting marginally better and look the bet.

Pick: Arizona @ 5/6; 1.83; -120

MLB - Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves ESPN 1am

Atlanta are on a six game losing streak. Beachy has good stuff, but the Nats hit him at a .314 clip with a .364 OBP.

Gio Gonzalez (6-1, 1.98 ERA) is 1.17/.250 WHIP/ERA L3 and the Braves are hitting just .190 against lefties L5.

The road dog's the bet.

Pick: Washington Nationals @ 57/50; 2.14; 114

MLB - Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox 6.30pm

Clay Buchholz has been inconsistent this season and has horrible numbers, although his record against the Rays is better. Jeremy Hellickson is in the opposite situation, with good numbers on the season, but Boston have troubled him this year at Fenway.

However, Hellickson looks 'the pitcher most likely' here and must be the value at Evens.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers ESPN 8pm

The Blue Jays have stumbled a little recently and Henderson Alvarez has struggled right along with them, putting way too many batters on base, so it's not a great time to take on the Texas offense in Arlington; however, he has decent enough stuff and his splits on the road are good.

Colby Lewis is coming off a couple of good starts, so I'll take Texas on the runline and go Under.

Pick: Texas -1.5 @ 6/5; 2.2; 120
Pick: Under 10.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins ESPN 12am

These two pitchers are in rare form; 0.98/0.84 and 1.10/2.14 WHIP/ERA L3 Ryan Vogelsong and Anibal Sanchez respectively, and with the Unders available at Even money, that looks the value, despite the ballpark.

Recently, when I've shot for Over, home runs have been solos (including back to back to back!) and Unders have seen grand salamis and multi-run dingers - even this afternoon's game saw Detroit's offense squander 5 free passes and go 0-9 RISP! So strap in, I'm on one of those runs that reminds you that baseball is an 'anything can happen' game.

God, I love it :)

Pick: Under 7 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians ESPN 5pm

My extensive research (OK, someone else's research) and mathematical analysis (someone else's maths too) shows us that turning heavy road favourites into dogs is the best way to bet the runline.

This is just such a game.

Pick: Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners ESPN 8.40pm

Both these pitchers have run into a little form and although taking on the Rangers' bats is a worry, I'll take this to go Under.

Pick: Under 8 @ 5/6; 1.83; -120

MLB - Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles ESPN 5.30pm

I like betting totals, but I'm taking a helluva beating on the live games.

These two pitchers are not to be trusted; Arrieta had a great outing last time, but he's dreadfully inconsistent and Daniel Bard has an ERA north of 6.00 away from Fenway.

These are two teams who can put up runs ... this MUST go Over.

Pick: Over 9 @ 20/23; 1.87; -115

MLB - Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays ESPN 12am

Matt More has good stuff, and is still being touted as a rookie of the year candidate, but he's off to a decidedly average start. He carries a 5.20 ERA into this game and L3 he has a 0-3/1.60/7.20 W/L/WHIP/ERA.

Drew Hutchison was selected in the 15th round by the Jays and never figured to tear it up in the bigs and sure enough, his numbers aren't good (1.51/4.38) but there has been an improvement of late (1.38/3.13 WHIP/ERA L3) and a little buzz, having given up one run on five hits against the Yankees last time out. However, both pitchers are issuing too many walks.

Toronto are hitting .310 against lefties L3, and although I don't expect them to drop the hammer on someone like Matt Moore the first time they see him, the Jays are at least hitting. The Rays are scuffling a little at the plate and if Hutchison can cut out the free passes, he looks the value tonight.

I like the Unders too; these pitchers are unknown quantities for the lineups, one offense is struggling and at least one of these pitchers is capable of shutting down a team.

A tight, low scoring game at the Trop with Toronto edging it? Here's hoping!

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays @ 31/25; 2.24; 124
Pick: Under 8 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds ESPN 12am

There's no point sugar coating this one; these two pitchers stink. Mike Minor is sporting a 1.45/7.09 WHIP/ERA on the season (1.57/7.53 away) and Mike Leake 1.59/6.21 (1.89/8.53). Horrible.

Atlanta have been slightly gun shy at the plate L2, but faced decent pitching and even if Jones is still out, it shouldn't unduly handicap them. The Reds are hitting nicely and should reach Minor without too much trouble.

Overs looks an obvious call at Great American Ball Park with a couple of rag arms on the mound, so it'll probably be a three run pitchers' duel, but what the hell.

Pick: Over 9 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - St Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers ESPN 1am

Both pitchers stumbled last time out, but Lohse has much the better numbers on the season. Billingsley's splits are slightly better at home and the Dodgers have the sign over the Cardinals having won the last six meetings.

That head-to-head streaks aside, these two are streaking in the opposite direction and, despite Kemp's absence and Billingsley's vulnerability, the Dodgers look the value.

Pick: LA Dodgers @ 11/10; 2.1; 110

MLB - Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies ESPN 6.30pm

Cliff Lee has been his usual self, pitching up a storm, but he's been getting little or no run support. I suspect he'll need to be sharp today against a Red Sox team that has started hitting the ball hard.

Josh Beckett has had an interesting first quarter and may just be pitching with a little fire in his belly, but again he'll need to have his stuff against a Phillies' lineup hitting .306 L5.

Lee is too short and with the line at 7, my instinct is always to go Under, but I have a feeling there could be some runs on offer and Under is short enough, so I'll take my courage in my hands and go Over.

Home plate umpire Paul Emmel is 7/0 O/U!

Pick: Over 7 @ 11/10; 2.1; 110

MLB - Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals ESPN 12am

It has to be the Birds, they're running too hot.

Pick: Baltimore Orioles @ 100/101; 1.99; -108

MLB - Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers ESPN 9pm

The Twins are hitting the ball hard (.281 vs righties L5) whereas the Brewers, Braun excepted, are not (.198).

Given the respective streaks, Minnesota look the bet, but Pavano is banged up and looks vulnerable, particularly at Miller Park. Gallardo has the stuff, but struggled at the beginning of the season and his ERA is inflated as a result, however he can be reached and the surging Twins should test him.

I can't have the home team at the price, but this one could see some runs scored, so I'll go Over.

Pick: Over 9 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs ESPN 7.20pm

Jeff Samardzija deserves some respect for the numbers he's put up so far this season, but Phil Humber has steadied the ship a little after his perfect game seemed to unsettle him.

The White Sox have won six of the last nine meetings on the North Side, so I'll play the Cubs' losing streak.

Pick: Chicago White Sox @ 121/100; 2.21; 121

MLB - St Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants ESPN 8.45pm

Wainwright has been inconsistent this season; his numbers look poor and he's lost his last three starts at AT&T with a 4.09 ERA.

Matt Cain has been outstanding, but has received no run support, but I'll take his strong arm to get the home side over the line.

Pick: San Francisco Giants @ 50/59; 1.84; -118

MLB - Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays ESPN 12am

Clay Buchholz is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last four matchups with the Rays and 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA in his last four starts at Tropicana Field. This Rays lineup is hitting a collective .238 against him, but his form this season has been horrible. Hellickson is toting a 2.05/7.56 WHIP/ERA line L3 (even worse on the road) and is putting too many people on - a fatal error.

The story for Jeremy Hellickson is almost the direct opposite; his numbers on the season are excellent (1.15/3.12 L3) and he has been particularly strong at home. However, he is 2-1 lifetime with a 4.99 ERA against the Red Sox and this lineup is hitting .270 against him. He gave up 5 runs in 5 IP in April at Fenway.

Boston is hitting the cover off the ball at the moment (.305 vs righties L5) and Buchholz has got a ton of run support to hide his poor performances, so backing him is risky, but I won't back the home team at 1.71. So, I'll look for some value elsewhere and take the Red Sox surging bats and solid pen to get Bucholz home and cover it with Overs.

Pick: Boston Red Sox @ 13/10; 2.30; 130
Pick: Over 8.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels ESPN 12am

An example of the perils of totals betting in the early game; the wind changed against us on a hot day and bang - four homers, nine runs and catastrophe! Keep a sharp eye on the weather.

This is an interesting match up; Santana has the better numbers L3, but the Angels are struggling to get runs home and the pitchers' splits reveal that, on the road, Colon has a 0.92/1.59 WHIP/ERA line and Santana has a 1.11/5.23 WHIP/ERA.

Also, Santana has struggled lately with the A's and Colon has beaten him already this season. A former Angel, Colon is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA over five starts against his old team and looks the value here.

Pick: Oakland As @ 29/20; 2.45; 145

MLB - Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox ESPN 7pm

Max Scherzer has a 1.80 ERA in his last seven starts against the White Sox and is running into some form, but Jake Peavy has been a revelation this season, with every single start this term a quality start. Peavy has only given up 3 runs once and is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA at home and looks the bet here.

Neither ball club is finding much consistency at the plate, and with Detroit hitting just .200 against Peavy and the White Sox hitting .210 against Scherzer, I'll go Under too.

Pick: Chicago White Sox @ 50/57; 1.87; -114
Pick: Under 8 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals ESPN 12am

The Cubs are hitting .247 (.253 vs righties) L10 and despite stellar numbers, Ryan Dempster hasn't got a win this season because he's received almost no run support. It's difficult to see them turning things around tonight against Jake Westbrook (1.13/2.21 WHIP/ERA).

I'll go Under.

Pick: Under 7.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers ESPN 1am

Going under at a sunny Arlington, with the the wind out and the way Texas are hitting, is a dangerous call, but the two pitchers today are capable of keeping the score low if they can keep it in the park.

The worry is Weaver staying on top of the Rangers; they are hitting (a not terrifying) .244 against him and he has a very strong 0.81/0.43 WHIP/ERA line L3, so he can keep a lid on it.

Feliz is .118/.237/.118 Avg/OBP/SLG against the Halos and he is 1.21/3.79 WHIP/ERA L3, which should be enough to keep them in check.

However, Weaver doesn't typically enjoy Arlington (1-6/5.35 ERA in his last 11 in Texas) so I'll take a little on the runline too in case he gets lit up.

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 @ 8/5; 2.6; 160
Pick: Under 8 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies ESPN 12am

Edinson Volquez has a 0.93/1.40 WHIP/ERA line L3. Halladay was rocked by the Braves, but otherwise he's been, well, Doc Halladay. Besides, the Padres are hitting like the Padres always do.

The Phillies are heating up at the plate, but they're hitting Volquez at just a .200 clip.

These pitchers have lifetime ERAs at about the 2.00 mark against tonight's opposition.

It's a 6.5 line and unles there's a really good reason to go Over, I always look for the Unders bet.

Pick: Under 6.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees ESPN 9pm

Neither pitcher fills me with joy, particularly on the disastrous run I appear to have embarked upon, but Hector Noesi has given up 4,3,1 runs L3 and is sure to want to impress back at Yankee Stadium for the first time.

I don't like Hughes and he can be vulnerable if he starts badly. The Yankee bullpen is still a little unsettled, so I'm going to take a punt on Hughes stumbling and Noesi and Montero getting some payback.

Pick: Seattle Mariners @ 9/5; 2.80; 180

MLB - Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers ESPN 6pm

There are some hot bats in this one, with the Rangers in particular hitting the pill hard. Texas are batting .366 vs lefties L5 and this afternoon's lefty has a 1.21/5.17 WHIP/ERA line L3; collectively, the Rangers are hitting .326 against C.J.Wilson and they should reach him today.

Matt Harrison's numbers are poor L3 (2.09/9.98) and he has struggled at home.

The wind is out and HP ump Hunter Wendelstedt went 13-2 O/U against high totals' lines last year (not a stat to take seriously!) and so even with the number at 9, I'll go Over.

Pick: Over 9 @ 4/5; 1.87; -125

MLB - New York Mets at Miami Marlins ESPN 12am

Johan Santana has owned the Marlins over his career (6-1/1.46 ERA) and this Miami lineup is hitting a collective .197 against him lifetime.

Santana is 1.02/1.83 WHIP/ERA L3 and with the Mets hitting lefties at .282 L10 (contrast the Marlins hitting .210 vs lefties L10) and on a 5 game wining streak, odds against looks too much value to turn down.

For you in-running fans, the Marlins' bullpen (1.84/4.43 WHIP/ERA L3) is still rocking, making them vulnerable in the late innings - something to bear in mind if Buehrle doesn't go deep into the game.

Pick: New York Mets @ 11/10; 2.1; 110

MLB - Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees ESPN 12am

This is a straightforward pick; David Price's form lifetime against the Yankees, and his numbers on the season, make the 'price' too attractive.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 5/4; 2.25; 125

MLB - Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees 12am ESPN

Play streaks, particularly losing streaks, because losing teams find ways to blow games.

That's all well and good, but I'm not backing David Phelps at 1.7+. Jeff Niemann, is solid at Yankee Stadium and the Rays look value, despite the streak.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 5/4; 2.25; 125

MLB - Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres ESPN 8.30pm

Not a couple of teams to back with any confidence. The Padres are hitting lefties at a .214 clip and the Rockies are hitting just .119 against right handed pitching L5.

The home team are generally struggling to get runs home and that may help Christian Friedrich to keep it in the park. The Rockies have a miserable run total on the road in general this term and at Petco in particular recently.

I'll go Under.

Under 7 @ 5/6; 1.83; -120

MLB - New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies ESPN 12am

When I see a Totals line at 6.5, I go Under ... usually. However, although Halladay is a bona fide ace and Niese has good stuff, their numbers on the season are poor.

The line is a combination of factors; these two have outstanding records against tonight's opposition. Halladay is 7-0 with a 1.68 ERA against the Mets since joining the Phillies in 2010. Niese has won three of his last four starts against the Phillies with a 3.38 ERA, allowing one or no earned runs in each of the victories.

Add in 67 degrees, overcast and stormy and the line has been forced down.

I'm going to give more weight to 1.31/5.62 WHIP/ERA and 1.50/6.05 Niese/Halladay L3 and go Over.

Pick: Over 6.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates ESPN 12am

The Reds at the Bucs doesn't exactly inspire, mainly because these are a couple of awkward pitchers to size up with confidence.

Mike Leake has been poor and posts 1.66/7.47 WHIP/ERA L3 (and his home splits aren't any better) but he has a 2.65 ERA lifetime against the Pirates, including 4QS out of 6 starts where he was shaded by a run to take the loss in three of those appearances.

James McDonald certainly has the better numbers this season (0.91/2.41 L3) but Pittsburgh are weak at the plate and it's difficult to rely on a lot of run support tonight.

However, the home team are hitting a collective .290 against Leake, whereas the Reds have a .269 line against McDonald, so I'll roll with Pirates and hope they get a few runs home to help their guy.

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates @ 20/21; 1.95; -105

MLB - Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox ESPN 6pm

Hammel has started well - 1.11/1.89 WHIP/ERA L3. Cook has been called up from Triple-A ball for a spot start against a team hitting .319 against him.

Both teams are on qualifying streaks; Baltimore have W3 in a row and Boston are going in the opposite direction.

The road dog is the value.

Pick: Baltimore Orioles @ 107/100; 2.07; 107

MLB - Texas Rangers at Cleveland Indians ESPN 12am

Tonight's pitchers have excellent numbers L3; Colby Lewis 1.05/2.25 WHIP/ERA and Jeanmar Gomez 0.98/2.70.

The Indians are hitting .227 against Lewis and while Gomez hasn't faced the hard hitting Rangers before, his even lower splits at home suggest that Unders is the bet.

Under 8.5 @ 83/100; 1.83; -120

MLB - Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs ESPN 7.10pm

Wrigley Field - if the wind is in, go Under; if the wind is out, well, go Over.

As it appears the wind this afternoon is off Lake Michigan, I'll test the theory and take the Under, but double check the weather, as it's always a risky, last minute bet.

Pick: Under 7 @ 19/20; 1.95; -105

MLB - Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants ESPN 8pm

Both of these pitchers have been strong in this matchup in the past; Anibal Sanchez has gone 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA - the Marlins have won six straight at AT&T Park. Whereas Ryan Vogelsong has a 1-2 record with a 2.16 ERA against the Marlins.

With the loss of Sandoval, the Giants are missing some punch at the plate and Sanchez should be able to dominate a lineup hitting a collective .253 against him. Vogelsong has a 1.11/2.14 WHIP/ERA at home and I like this to go Under too.

Pick: Miami Marlins @ 9/10; 1.88; -113
Pick: Under 6.5 @ Evens; 2.0; 100

MLB - New York Mets at Houston Astros ESPN 7pm

Chris Schwinden (0-0, 11.25) does not inspire; he's 0-2 with a 5.76 ERA in five major league starts and is 2.00/11.25 WHIP/ERA on the season. Wandy Rodriguez on the other hand, is 0.95/1.35 WHIP/ERA L3 and has gone 2-0 with a 1.73 ERA in four games against the Mets at Minute Maid Park.

The Mets look as though they're heading in the wrong direction and so reluctantly, I'll try and eke out some value on the runline.

Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 @ 29/20; 2.45; 145

MLB - Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals ESPN 12am

A difficult call; Zimmerman is aces and will make the Diamondbacks work for their runs, but the Nats are swinging like a rusty gate. Washington are hitting .176 L5 and are on a four game losing streak that makes them look vulnerable.

This will be a real test of the power of the (losing) streak, but it looks like the play here.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks @ 13/10; 2.28; 128