Tough pick. Denver can't score an offensive point and yet their defense looks brutal. Manning almost looks done, but it's impossible to rule out a guy with that much talent and but for a couple of misses he would've got on the board.
Kansas put the Texans away last week, the garbage time scores flattered Houston, but the Chiefs struggled in pass protection and Denver can swarm all over Alex Smith. Crucially, Denver were tough against the run and the Kansas offense still goes through Jamaal Charles, despite signs of life in the pass game. If the run game stutters, the Chiefs are in trouble.
I try to avoid trends in football, I don't believe they're helpful, but it should be noted that Denvers has owned Kansas City recently, even at Arrowhead and even with Tebow under center.
I have to take the points and I'll buy the half. I also like the Under.
Pick: Denver Broncos +3.5 @ 1.85
Pick: Under 42.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Travis Kelce @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Demaryius Thomas @ 2.5
Thursday, 17 September 2015
Monday, 14 September 2015
Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons 00.10am
People like the look of the Eagles, and they've had a great pre-season (it's pushed the line out by a point and a half) so going into the Georgia Dome they look an attractive proposition.
However, Atlanta have gone out and tried to fill the obvious deficiencies and if anyone is going to build a defence, it's Dan Quinn. The problem is, it may be too soon to meet a high octane offense like the Eagles.
Of course Philadelphia are also trying to restructure a secondary that was often woeful last season and Matt Ryan will be slinging it all night, given that he has no run game to fall back on. Whether he can hit Julio Jones often enough though, is doubtful.
There should be a ton of points, but I think the visitors will probably have too much.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 @ 1.97
Pick: Over 54.5 @ 1.92
Pick: 1st TD Julio Jones @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Jordan Matthews @ 2
However, Atlanta have gone out and tried to fill the obvious deficiencies and if anyone is going to build a defence, it's Dan Quinn. The problem is, it may be too soon to meet a high octane offense like the Eagles.
Of course Philadelphia are also trying to restructure a secondary that was often woeful last season and Matt Ryan will be slinging it all night, given that he has no run game to fall back on. Whether he can hit Julio Jones often enough though, is doubtful.
There should be a ton of points, but I think the visitors will probably have too much.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 @ 1.97
Pick: Over 54.5 @ 1.92
Pick: 1st TD Julio Jones @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Jordan Matthews @ 2
Sunday, 13 September 2015
Live NFL - New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys 1.25am
Murray will be a big miss, but the Giants look vulnerable against the pass and Romo should have time to throw.
Again though, not a big bet - its difficult to lean too heavily on the Cowboys' D.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -6 @ 1.92
Pick: Over 52.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Jason Witten @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Shane Vereen @ 3.75
Again though, not a big bet - its difficult to lean too heavily on the Cowboys' D.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -6 @ 1.92
Pick: Over 52.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Jason Witten @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Shane Vereen @ 3.75
Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos 9.25pm
Baltimore are mighty salty up front on both sides of the ball and they're going to get after what looks like a suspect and inexperienced Broncos' O line - old wet spaghetti arm will need to lean heavily on the newly anointed C J Anderson.
The Ravens though, have Flacco under centre; he's unpredictable at the best of times, and with almost no-one left to throw it to (he'll try to hurl it deep to Steve Smith a couple of times) he'll also need his RB to shine and Justin Forsett just might. Denver are strong defending deep and pass rush, so Forsett catching out of the backfield and running behind a fine O line may have a big game.
Not a game to get heavily involved in (in fact, I'd leave it alone) but I'll take the points.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens +5 @ 1.91
Pick: First TD CJ Anderson @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Justin Forsett @ 2
The Ravens though, have Flacco under centre; he's unpredictable at the best of times, and with almost no-one left to throw it to (he'll try to hurl it deep to Steve Smith a couple of times) he'll also need his RB to shine and Justin Forsett just might. Denver are strong defending deep and pass rush, so Forsett catching out of the backfield and running behind a fine O line may have a big game.
Not a game to get heavily involved in (in fact, I'd leave it alone) but I'll take the points.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens +5 @ 1.91
Pick: First TD CJ Anderson @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Justin Forsett @ 2
Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears 6pm
Eddie Lacy will be difficult to stop; he usually runs on the Bears and the home team's move to a 3-4 D may not have bedded in. Similarly, even a Nelson-less Rodgers will find time to give the Chicago defense a big test, particularly against the corners.
On the other side, well, Dom Capers always gives the fragile Cutler fits.
Lacy will pound it, then Rodgers will finish it. Giving less than a TD at Evens looks a knocking bet.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -6.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Eddie Lacy @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Forte @ 2
On the other side, well, Dom Capers always gives the fragile Cutler fits.
Lacy will pound it, then Rodgers will finish it. Giving less than a TD at Evens looks a knocking bet.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -6.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Eddie Lacy @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Forte @ 2
Friday, 11 September 2015
Live NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots 1.30am Friday 11th Sept
The Pats will be fired up here after a soap opera off-season.
Pittsburgh have brought in coaching help on the defensive side, but with suspensions hurting on offense, I like the Pats.
Pick: New England Patriots -7 @ 1.93
Pick: 1st TD Gronkowski @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Dion Lewis @ 3
Pittsburgh have brought in coaching help on the defensive side, but with suspensions hurting on offense, I like the Pats.
Pick: New England Patriots -7 @ 1.93
Pick: 1st TD Gronkowski @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Dion Lewis @ 3
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