MLB

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees

Saturday 1st October, 1.37am

ESPN America

Starting Pitchers

Detroit: Verlander (24-5, 2.40 ERA)

New York: Sabathia (19-8, 3.00 ERA)

Teasing out who’ll come out on top with two pitchers as accomplished as this on the mound, is a difficult one. Both have been outstanding during the regular season (with Verlander just shading it) and both have had problems against tonight’s opposition.

Each manager has spoken about the fact that momentum is irrelevant, because everyone is effectively starting again, but I’m not so convinced. The Tigers have had a better September than the Yankees, who seem to have had a problem since clinching the AL East. The personnel and rotations were tweaked (quite properly, as Girardi prepared for the post-season) but there seemed a lack of cohesion.

Detroit finished strong, going 7-3 L10 and I get the sense they have what momentum there is in this game.

Looking at the pitchers’ numbers against the lineups, Verlander’s are marginally better (.237/.335/.384 AVG/OBP/SLG -vs- .250/.311/.413) and his recent numbers are stronger. Worryingly for the Yankees, Sabathia may be walking too many at present.

On balance, I’m going to favour Detroit at the price.

Pick: Tigers @ 2.2; 120; 6/5

MLB

Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers

Friday 30th September, 10.07pm

ESPN America

Starting Pitchers

Tampa Bay: Moore (1-0, 1.29 ERA)

Texas: Wilson (16-7, 2.94 ERA)

I distrust systems, but I will consider certain principles that might indicate a bet, and one I like is talented rookie lefties going up against a lineup for the first time.

Tampa are rolling; they’ve just pulled off one of the most astonishing Septembers to catapult themselves into the post-season.

Texas are strong and are third favourites to go all the way (I suspect that price is out of whack by the way, and they’re value at 8/1) and opposing them at Arlington is a risky proposition; it’s not as if they lack their own momentum, they’ve won their last 6 and are 9-1 L10 - although that run was against Oakland, Seattle and an eliminated LA Angels.

However, I think enough of the adrenalin should still be coursing through Rays’ veins and the fairytale will extend for one more game – although Texas will win the series. I’ll take the Overs too, in a game that may well yield runs at a sunny Arlington with eager offenses going at it.

Pick: Rays @ 2.67; 167; 167/100

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 2.00; 100; Evens

MLB

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

Thursday 29th September, 0.10am

ESPN America

Starting Pitchers

Boston: Lester (15-9, 3.49 ERA)

Baltimore: Simon (4-9, 4.85 ERA)

It’s astonishing that the wildcard has played out like this - it’s nearly as surprising as me being ‘forced’ to pick over 200 regular season games and coming out ahead!

However, just as luck must have played a sizeable role in my limited success, my feeling is that Boston will need a break to get past the Rays and into the post-season in this race.

Lester owns the Orioles; he is 14-0 with a 2.33 ERA in 17 starts against Baltimore, and is unbeaten at Camden Yards. This means there’s an interesting dichotomy at play here, because he has stunk recently. Lester is 2.12/10.54 WHIP/ERA L3 - issuing 8 free passes in his last 13.2 innings and his confidence seems low. He’s also going on three day’s rest – although it was only 2.2 innings of carnage against the Yankees where he gave up 8 earned runs.

That said, Alfredo Simon hardly inspires: it’s difficult to know exactly what he’ll do tonight (he struggles mightily with consistency) and this Red Sox lineup is hitting .324 against him. He has a moderate line L3 (1.20/4.95 WHIP/ERA) and looks like conceding runs.

I think this will come down to the respective offenses: Baltimore are hitting the cover off the ball (they’ve only scored less than 6 runs once L10) and Boston will be swinging for the fences in their desperation to win.

When the dust settles however, I have a feeling that it will be the Orioles, unencumbered by the pressure that seems to have frozen the Red Sox recently, who will be left standing.

I can’t resist the price, and I’ll save it on the total.

Pick: Orioles @ 3.00; 20o; 2/1

Pick: Over 9 @ 1.83; -120; 5/6

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