MLB

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

Thursday 29th September, 0.10am

ESPN America

Starting Pitchers

Boston: Lester (15-9, 3.49 ERA)

Baltimore: Simon (4-9, 4.85 ERA)

It’s astonishing that the wildcard has played out like this - it’s nearly as surprising as me being ‘forced’ to pick over 200 regular season games and coming out ahead!

However, just as luck must have played a sizeable role in my limited success, my feeling is that Boston will need a break to get past the Rays and into the post-season in this race.

Lester owns the Orioles; he is 14-0 with a 2.33 ERA in 17 starts against Baltimore, and is unbeaten at Camden Yards. This means there’s an interesting dichotomy at play here, because he has stunk recently. Lester is 2.12/10.54 WHIP/ERA L3 - issuing 8 free passes in his last 13.2 innings and his confidence seems low. He’s also going on three day’s rest – although it was only 2.2 innings of carnage against the Yankees where he gave up 8 earned runs.

That said, Alfredo Simon hardly inspires: it’s difficult to know exactly what he’ll do tonight (he struggles mightily with consistency) and this Red Sox lineup is hitting .324 against him. He has a moderate line L3 (1.20/4.95 WHIP/ERA) and looks like conceding runs.

I think this will come down to the respective offenses: Baltimore are hitting the cover off the ball (they’ve only scored less than 6 runs once L10) and Boston will be swinging for the fences in their desperation to win.

When the dust settles however, I have a feeling that it will be the Orioles, unencumbered by the pressure that seems to have frozen the Red Sox recently, who will be left standing.

I can’t resist the price, and I’ll save it on the total.

Pick: Orioles @ 3.00; 20o; 2/1

Pick: Over 9 @ 1.83; -120; 5/6