Live NFL - New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins 6pm Sky Sports

The toe over the line that nixed the Steelers' miracle play against the Fins last week cost me several hundred pounds, so I'm a little down on Miami, who have flip flopped favouritism. The Pats opened as 2.5 favourites, but people have smashed into Miami plus the points and the Dolphins now find themselves favoured by 2.5 in places.

The loss of Gronk is huge (and not just as a receiver) and the Dolphins bring pressure off the edge that'll have Tom Terrific on his toes, but I like Vereen and Ridley and the damage New England did to Miami's interior line last time and frankly, this looks like one of those typical Belichick/Brady situations where everyone is hammering them in the media and on the boards and they come through just to spite the doubters.

It's not a big bet, but I'll fade the home team SU.

Pick: New England Patriots @ 2.15

Pick: 1st TD Julian Edelman @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Shane Vereen @ 2

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ATS (34-31, +2.71)
Totals (11-9, +1.33)

1st TD (8-47, +16.5)
Anytime TD (35-61, -4.54)

(+16)