After a decent season where I've made a few bob, I'm going to put it all on the line here and pick Seattle straight up and with the points.
I expect the Seahawks to simplify the passing game and let Wilson operate outside the pocket; Harvin is back, Harris is still missing and Lynch will benefit with the uncertainty that creates for the Denver defense. Percy Harvin is that big play threat that has plagued Denver this season.
Prop: Longest TD Yardage Over 41.5 @ 1.95 (Stan James)
Everyone is high on the Broncos defense, and credit Jack Del Rio for the progress they've made, but they may be on the field a long time tonight and Wilson will challenge them with his legs. Wilson needs to hit some passes he missed down the stretch, and Denver will likely bring four and opt for dropping into zone coverage, but I like Seattle to control that side of the ball with Lynch having a big game.
Prop: Russell Wilson Total Rushing Yards Over 32.5 @ 1.91 (Bet Victor)
Prop: Marshawn Lynch Total Rushing Yards Over 88.5 @ 1.91 (Sky Bet)
Denver backers are, of course, pointing to Peyton Manning and the Broncos' offense, but they have had one of the softest schedules of any Super Bowl teams. Seattle are a completely different matter.
The Seahawks rarely blitz, instead relying on the fact that they can bring so much pressure up the middle with their front four - this is a problem for Manning because he feasts on the all-out blitz and looks most vulnerable with that type of pressure, which also allows Dan Quinn to get creative deeper. Again, there are qualifiers here; the Cover-3 favoured by Seattle plays into Peyton's wheelhouse and there's a helluva lot of talent on that offense, but the Seahawks have a stellar secondary and are solid on the ground, so it'll be tough up front for Denver and that bodes ill, because even in today's NFL, that's where games are decided.
Prop: Knowshon Moreno Total Rushing Yards Under 67.5 @ 1.8 (Bet Victor)
Prop: Total Denver Field Goals Over 1.5 @ 1.67 (youwin)
I hope it'll be a great game (I always worry about the zebras and don't be surprised to see Peyton get some dodgy PI calls) but it'll certainly be fascinating to see the best offense in football face off against the best defense.
Have a great night.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks @ 2.15
Pick: Seattle Seahawks +2 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Seattle D/ST @ 21; Julius Thomas @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Percy Harvin @ 3.3; Wes Welker @ 2.4
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