Live NFL - Super Bowl Seattle Seahawks v Denver Broncos 11.35pm Sky Sports, Ch4

After a decent season where I've made a few bob, I'm going to put it all on the line here and pick Seattle straight up and with the points.

I expect the Seahawks to simplify the passing game and let Wilson operate outside the pocket; Harvin is back, Harris is still missing and Lynch will benefit with the uncertainty that creates for the Denver defense. Percy Harvin is that big play threat that has plagued Denver this season.

Prop: Longest TD Yardage Over 41.5 @ 1.95 (Stan James)

Everyone is high on the Broncos defense, and credit Jack Del Rio for the progress they've made, but they may be on the field a long time tonight and Wilson will challenge them with his legs. Wilson needs to hit some passes he missed down the stretch, and Denver will likely bring four and opt for dropping into zone coverage, but I like Seattle to control that side of the ball with Lynch having a big game.

Prop: Russell Wilson Total Rushing Yards Over 32.5 @ 1.91 (Bet Victor)
Prop: Marshawn Lynch Total Rushing Yards  Over 88.5 @ 1.91 (Sky Bet)

Denver backers are, of course, pointing to Peyton Manning and the Broncos' offense, but they have had one of the softest schedules of any Super Bowl teams. Seattle are a completely different matter. 

The Seahawks rarely blitz, instead relying on the fact that they can bring so much pressure up the middle with their front four - this is a problem for Manning because he feasts on the all-out blitz and looks most vulnerable with that type of pressure, which also allows Dan Quinn to get creative deeper. Again, there are qualifiers here; the Cover-3 favoured by Seattle plays into Peyton's wheelhouse and there's a helluva lot of talent on that offense, but the Seahawks have a stellar secondary and are solid on the ground, so it'll be tough up front for Denver and that bodes ill, because even in today's NFL, that's where games are decided.

Prop: Knowshon Moreno Total Rushing Yards Under 67.5 @ 1.8 (Bet Victor)
Prop: Total Denver Field Goals Over 1.5 @ 1.67 (youwin)

I hope it'll be a great game (I always worry about the zebras and don't be surprised to see Peyton get some dodgy PI calls) but it'll certainly be fascinating to see the best offense in football face off against the best defense.

Have a great night.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks @ 2.15
Pick: Seattle Seahawks +2 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Seattle D/ST @ 21; Julius Thomas @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Percy Harvin @ 3.3; Wes Welker @ 2.4

Live NFL - Conference Championship Weekend 8pm 'til late Sky Sports

It's not been a bad post-season, but hitting last week's Teaser definitely helped after getting the wrong side of the hook in a couple of games. 

On we go ...

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos - 8pm

Regular readers, followers and subscribers will know (because it's in every monthly betting bulletin) that, as much as I struggle with the Pats as an organisation, I admire Belichick and Brady as consumate tacticians. 

Last week New England pounded the rock and murdered the Colts with Blount running amok. However, Denver are tough to run on and I expect Brady to have to throw to get this done, he'll be helped by Chris Harris going down, but I doubt it'll be enough as Denver have stiffened on defense and the Pats' injuries on both sides of the ball will finally catch up with them as Manning has too many weapons, through the air and on the ground.

Denver is a tough enough place to go at the best of times, let alone with men missing and the Broncos rolling on offense.

Pick: Denver Broncos -4 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Julius Thomas @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Julian Edelman @ 2.3

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks - 11.30pm

The 49ers tend to get beaten up in CenturyLink and while this is their best shot at laying that ghost, I doubt they will.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Russell Wilson @ 4.5

Live NFL Divisional Weekend - San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos 9.40pm Sky Sports

Don't be silly.

Pick: Denver Broncos -7.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Knowshon Moreno @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Julius Thomas @ 2.4

Live NFL Divisional Weekend - San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers 6pm Sky Sports

The closest game of the weekend, but I like the 49ers pass rush and Bowman and Willis to give Cam Newton a tough time. The Panthers shouldn't be able to compensate on the ground.

San Francisco, on the other hand, have a nicer balance on offense (although Gore isn't likely to tear it up against this front) with the return of Crabtree reigniting the passing game.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers @ 1.98

Pick: 1st TD Anquan Boldin @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Frank Gore @ 2.1

Live NFL Divisional Weekend - Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots 1.15am Sky Sports

The Colts should pound the rock here, but with their ropey corners and Brilliant Bill and Tom Terrific challenging that secondary, Luck may have to throw it against an improved Pats' pass D.

Pick: New England Patriots -7 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Shane Vereen @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Julian Edelman @ 2; Donald Brown @ 2.3

NFL Divisional Weekend 6pt Teaser

Seahawks
Patriots
49ers
Broncos

Live NFL Divisional Weekend - New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks 9.35pm Sky Sports

Everyone seems to feel Drew Brees shook off his road hoodoo last weekend, but this week it returns.

Seattle are too tough on D, Wilson is too efficient and the crowd too hostile.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -9.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Seattle D/ST @ 4