Monday, 24 September 2012

NFL - New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens Ch4 1.30am

New England have re-discovered defense; they're tough against the run and the pass, showing second versus the run (2.3 YPC) and third against the pass (5.7 YPA).

The former is tough on the Ravens, who may want to take the ball out of Joe Flacco's hands after last week's performance on his way to a 66.8 passer rating. Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower can bring pressure and with the state of the Raven's O line, it could be a long night for Flacco. Ray Rice will anchor the offense and if he doesn't dominate, Baltimore will struggle.


Tom Brady had a tough time last week, but the Cards are rolling and losing Hernandez will have unbalanced the game plan. Nobody is better at re-gathering their team than Belichick and Brady and I expect the Pats to be sharp on offense again. If the Eagles can test Baltimore through the air, then New England certainly can and with no Suggs to slow Brady and a secondary that has problems all over the field, the assorted Patriot deep targets should prosper.


I'll take the points.


Pick: New England Patriots +3 @ 1.91 (Corals)

Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Wes Welker @ 2.8

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