Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons Sky Sports 1.20am

I'm looking forward to what could be an ill-tempered shoot out in the Georgia Dome. There's the must-win Saints against the avenging Falcons - and just for a little added piquancy, the Saints' bus was egged by staff at the Atlanta airport!

Atlanta have a fearsome passing offense and that can't be good news for a Saints defense that ranks 30th against the pass. New Orleans also struggle against the run, but the Falcons have failed to get their ground game going; this could be the opportunity though, for Jacquizz Rodgers to finally wrest the lead back mantle from the cumbersome Michael Turner - although Turner still gets the ball close in, if you're looking at the TD market. Rodgers has begun to catch out of the backfield too, but while all this might suggest there's a significant Atlanta ground attack, the truth is, it's still not that effective.

Rather, it is Matt Ryan to Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez that makes the home team so potent on offense. They murdered the Saints in their last meeting, and although there have been signs of life from the New Orleans' secondary, they are still weak. There's no Saints' pass rush to really worry Ryan, so he'll have time to find his targets.

Drew Brees has a similar array of talent to throw to; Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Jimmy Graham are every bit as dangerous as the Falcons receivers and, although Atlanta have allowed only two multiple TD games all season (ranking a very respectable 13th in ypg) their ability to control wideouts is undermined by Jimmy Graham who matches up well over the middle - Atlanta may have Stephen Nicholas and Sean Weatherspoon back, and they'll need them.

New Orleans have Darren Sproles back and that adds to the Saints' backfield, because he brings variation catching the ball. Atlanta have beefed up their run defense and it's worth noting their success against the explosive Doug Martin last week, but it is crucial New Orleans get something going on the ground.

Some notes: Since 2008, the Falcons are 31-7 record at home, but three of those losses are to the Saints. Atlanta haven't beaten New Orleans in the Georgia Dome since 2008.

The money has come for the visitors (largely, I suspect, on the basis of those stats) but like every shoot out in football, what you have to decide is who is going to make that rare defensive stop, and Atlanta looks the most likely tonight.

I'll give the points.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9; Julio Jones @ 9.5
Pick: Anytime TD Atlanta DST @ 4.5