Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos Sky Sports, Saturday 9.30pm
The Ravens have killed me this season, with Flacco alternating
between hopeless and highly competent. However, today (even giving up so
many points) I'm going to take Denver to finally put an end to my
nightmare.
Last week, I suggested that Ray Lewis may prove a liability, and
although he made 13 tackles in the game, this quote from the Baltimore
Sun may be telling, because today I expect Peyton Manning and the Denver
Broncos to make more of Rice’s shortcomings:
‘According to the guys over at Pro Football Focus, Lewis was the
team's lowest graded defender Sunday... Of course, these grades are
subjective, but Pro Football Focus is a reliable and respected stats
website.’ Baltimore Sun, Jan 7
As usual, Manning will look for critical matchups in the backfield
and Lewis may struggle – look for the Broncos’ tight ends going up
against him. The Broncos under Manning have developed into a powerful
offensive unit and both Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas have gone over
1000 yards. Denver have been excellent in pass protection and Manning
should also see matchups he likes deep against the Ravens.
I expect Knowshon Moreno to see a lot of the ball and it's
interesting to read ESPN's analysis where they point out, slightly
worryingly, that Manning's statistics in cold weather games are not good
and that for the first time this season he will be wearing a glove on
his throwing hand. If that does limit the passing game in any way,
Moreno will be the key to the Broncos offence. Encouragingly, Moreno had
a big game against the Ravens earlier in the season.
Just as a middle linebacker may be the key to breaking open the home
team's offence, it may be that the Broncos middle linebacker, Keith
Brooking, proves to be the weak link in their defense. Denver played an
excellent game against the pass in the last match up, but Brooking has
struggled against tight ends all season and Dennis Pitta remains
Flacco’s favourite target.
The Broncos shut down the run game effectively last time these two
met and Ray Rice has suddenly started fumbling the ball. With this in
mind, Bernard Pierce may get more touches as Baltimore will have to get
the run game going with the Broncos ability to limit the offense’s
options deeper down the field.
Flacco is susceptible to poor games on the road and Denver is always
a tough place to go, Von Miller and Derek Wolfe can put him under real
pressure and expose his erratic decision-making.
I’ll give the points.
Pick: Denver Broncos -9 @ 2.00
Pick: 1st TD Ray Rice @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Decker @ 2; Denver DST @ 4
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers Sky Sports, Sunday 1.05am
San Francisco beat Green Bay earlier in the season and that was with
Alex Smith under centre, so with the more capable Colin Kaepernick as
their quarterback, it would seem that their chances of repeating are
good. However, I like Green Bay in this game.
The Packers have struggled all season in pass protection and the
arrival at right tackle of Don Barclay doesn't exactly fill me with
confidence, but a couple of things have changed since that game that
lead me to believe that Aaron Rodgers can dominate here. The first
improvement is the development of Randall Cobb, who has become an
excellent outlet for Rodgers; both he and Greg Jennings working on
slants and screens can give the 49ers a headache this evening (as the
home team will try to get after Rodgers) as well as opening other
opportunities deeper down the field. The re-emergence of Jermichael
Finley is also encouraging, but it’s the array of downfield weapons that
should be the difference.
Another change from the game earlier in the season is DuJuan Harris.
Justin Smith is the beating heart of an excellent San Francisco run
defense, but he suffered a partially torn left triceps tendon three
weeks ago and will still be favouring it if he goes tonight – running at
that side may expose Aldon Smith who can struggle against the run.
Harris is a no nonsense downhill runner and can offer the Pack another
dimension on that side of the ball, he won’t go mad with Patrick Willis
and NaVorro Bowman to compete with, but he’ll be an important piece in
the game.
Kaepernick is a considerable threat through the air and on the
ground, but with Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson back and fit and
Kaepernick having problems with handling the snap, it’ll be no surprise
to see Dom Capers throw all sorts of blitzes at the young QB. Deeper,
Green Bay have started to come together at just the right time and while
Crabtree is a real threat, his battle with Tramon Williams will be
fascinating.
The key of course, is the 49ers rushing attack. Green Bay bottled up
Adrian Peterson against the Joe Webb-led Vikes last week, but Webb
isn’t going to beat you with his arm, so the Pack could stack the box;
that can’t happen tonight against the Gore/ Kaepernick combo. It will
be an exercise in damage limitation, particularly as Gore and his
change-up, LaMichael James are dangerous catching out of the backfield –
a traditional weakness for the Packers.
Green Bay, seemingly peaking and getting fit at the right time,
should have just too much for the 49ers, so I’ll take the points.
Pick: Green Bay +3 @ 1.85
Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD James Jones @ 2.62; Jermichael Finley @ 3.5
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