Thursday, 1 October 2015

Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers 1.25am

These are situations I usually like - a key player goes down and the market overreacts making the team in question a value bet.

However, I'm less keen here as Roethlisberger is such a central element in Todd Haley's offense. (This may seem obvious, but generally stand-ins in football, even at QB, can maintain the plan) Michael Vick though, is off a short week and was horrible when he came in (and in New York) and it will be difficult to keep the pass happy steel wheels rollin'.

LeVeon Bell will doubtless be part of the answer, but presumably the Ravens will stack the box and force Vick to throw. That doesn't bode well.

Flacco is just as capable of picking your pocket as lining it and he'll need the reborn Steve Smith to continue to produce, as the Ravens' run game is going nowhere. The Steelers' numbers on D are impressive, but they haven't had to fight off any real offensive threats, so there may be light at the end of the 0-3 tunnel for Baltimore.

In truth, this is a game to avoid at all costs, although if you must, Maxx Williams looks an interesting bet with Gillmore out in a Baltimore O that hits TEs.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3 @ 2.05

Pick: First TD LeVeon Bell @ 6; Maxx Williams @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD Maxx Williams @ 3.25

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