Thursday, 29 October 2015

Live NFL - Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots 12.25am

Can I get a "WHOOP WHOOP" for the MNF pick?! A stopped clock and all that :)

This has the same feel to it, although I'm less enthusiastic, so I'll be keeping stakes modest.

Traditionally, New England kicks Miami up and down the field at Gillette Stadium (6-0 ATS), but the elevation of Dan Campbell after Joe Philbin was shown the door has completely re-energised the fins. Their balance on offense is really nice (something I always look for - a stud here and there is fine, but give me a little running and a little passing any day) and Tannehill has got the O purring. Last week against the Texans they were merciless. On the other side of the ball too, Miami have suddenly found some form and Cameron Wake is playing out of his mind, racking up 6 sacks in the last two weeks. Even Suh looks a new player in a front that looks pretty salty.

Of course, the red hot Pats' desire for revenge for Deflategate is still driving them on and the Gronk is as unstoppable as ever, so I don't see an upset SU, but again, a back door cover may be on, or Miami will keep it just close enough.

Don't go mad (New England are 8-2-2 ATS as single-digit home favourites over the past three seasons) but take the points.

Pick: Miami Dolphins +8.5 @ 1.92

Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jarvis Landry @ 2.4

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