Sunday, 25 October 2015

Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers 12.30am

This is an interesting matchup. The Eagles' defense has been brutal, but Cam Newton is a different proposition and at the moment he's on fire. The Eagles take away the run game, so it'll be up to Cam to find a way to work it to an underwhelming receiving corps, outside Greg Olsen, or keep the chains moving by running himself.

Similarly, the Panthers have been putting up some good D, despite the absence of DE Charles Johnson, and Josh Norman must have looked at the game tape from Bradford's last outing and be thinking that Christmas may have come early.

If Sam Bradford throws three picks again tonight, he may be gone with the Bye week coming, but Chip Kelly will likely try to limit the opportunities for disaster by feeding DeMarco Murray, who has found some form of late, although taking Carolina on on the ground is a big ask.

There are too many imponderables here to back the teams with any great confidence ATS, but I think the Eagles probably have more options ... the problem is Sam Bradford and the price on the key number.

There is a value bet here, and it's the Under: two tough defenses and offenses with obvious limitations.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +3 @ 1.87
Pick: Under 45.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Cam Newton @ 2.75

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