The New England defense keep generating turnovers as teams struggle to
keep pace with their offense, which is its usual irresistible self:
opponent's risk-taking has allowed the Pats to post a +17 turnover ratio
and of course, fuel Tom Brady. The Texans bring an interesting gameplan
though; they are a run first offense that sets up Schaub off play
action - ball security is at a premium and they've only fumbled twice
all season.
The key then, is for Houston to start well and test the New England
defense. If Arian Foster gets going, it could be an interesting evening,
as the home team's limited pass rush can expose a secondary that is
still poor, despite the addition of Aqib Talib; Andre Johnson could put
up numbers. The Pats have a decent enough run defense, but Foster is a
significant challenge.
All that said, Tom Brady is going to be faced with a Texans'
secondary that is on its knees, having been decimated by injury. New
England only have to control the formidable J.J. Watt (a situation
complicated by injuries to Logan Mankins and Dan Connolly) and Brady
should be able to dissect what remains of the Houston pass defense. It's
worth bearing in mind that twenty of the twenty-four TDs given up by
Houston have been through the air, which is right in Brady's wheelhouse.
New England are quietly putting together a nice run game too and
although they could find themselves dropping into pass protection, look
for Stevan Ridley close in.
I'm looking forward to this game, and although the Texans aren't
getting the respect they deserve, Brady should be too much at home
tonight. I give less than a TD.
Pick: New England Patriots -5.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Aaron Hernandez @ 9; Stevan Ridley @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Wes Welker @ 2.1; Andre Johnson @ 2.1
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