Sunday, 6 October 2013

Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins 6pm Sky Sports

Capping the Ravens. I just can't do it. 

Flacco is terrifying as a betting proposition at the best of times and now with his offensive line in disarray and peculiar calls coming in from the sidelines and rattling around in his head, anything can happen.

Flacco threw a bunch of picks last week, but spent the whole game under pressure as the line collapsed; Miami need to get Cameron Wake on the field as the beating heart of the pass rush, but he'll be limited even if he does go.

The Ravens have to get Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce rolling. The Fins' front is decent against the run, but Rice catching and running out of the backfield will allow Flacco to operate much more efficiently. Last week, because of the collapse of the left  side, Rice kept getting dropped into protection, completely removing him from the offense. 

The newly acquired Monroe will offer more if he plays, and I suspect they'll want to plug him in ASAP. Torrey Smith is having a standout season and he'll draw Brent Grimes, but he can still have a big game, particularly if Flacco does get more protection.

If Flacco is vulnerable behind an under-performing line (12 sacks) then Tannehill is in imminent danger of getting denogginised. Miami have given up an NFL leading 18 sacks and will face Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil who have points to prove after being successfully corralled by the Bills last week. 

Tannehill throws it a lot, but may find his opportunities reduced with limited time in the pocket; this is doubly dangerous, as he tends to turn the ball over under pressure. Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline don't inspire, largely because their QB seems to struggle to get on the same page.

The Miami O line did manage to create space for the ground game and, like the Ravens, it seems the obvious offensive starting point for the Dolphins O. Here though, the coaching staff need to understand that Lamar Miller is the future and Daniel Thomas is not!

I don't like the home team in this spot, but Baltimore can be anything on any given day. However, I expect the defending champs to show up today, and bounce back against an over-performing Miami side heading into a bye week.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens +3 @ 1.83
(13-9, +3.24)
Pick: Under 43.5 @ 1.91
(5-4, +0.63)

Pick: 1st TD Dallas Clark @ 17
(4-8, +27)
Pick: Anytime TD Torrey Smith @ 2.62; Ray Rice @ 2.5
(13-15, +7.28)


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