Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots 9.25pm Sky Sports

I have the Saints at the top of the tree at the moment. The return of Sean Payton seems to have entirely reinvigorated the franchise and Brees is once more putting up ridiculous numbers. Pierre Thomas is beginning to flicker, running and catching out of the backfield and the New Orleans' run game can keep the chains moving tonight against a Pats' D that misses Wilfork. Darren Sproles seems to have lost ground to Thomas, but don't count him out.

Then there's Jimmy Graham. The regular reader of this blog will know I'm a great fan of Belichick and his ability to scheme solutions, but there's not really much you can do about Graham and if he draws Aqib Talib, then all the better for the rest of the offense.

New England are blessed, of course, with Tom Brady, but last week showed that physicality, particularly off the edges, destabilises the Pats' offense and the game ended Brady’s streak of 52 straight games with at least one touchdown pass. The Gronk is likely out which is bad news for Brady who was particularly stymied over the middle by the Bengals.

The Pats' run game still struggles to get any rhythm and Brady will have to make some plays happen downfield to get this done. I don't like that situation against the Saints.

Pick: New Orleans Saints +2.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Darren Sproles @ 12

Pick: Anytime TD Pierre Thomas @ 2.75; Marques Colston @ 2.5