Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens 6pm Sky Sports

I think this turns on the Baltimore defense, who have been mean at home and will pressure the perpetually sacked Aaron Rodgers all afternoon. 

Green Bay, for all their stellar performers on the offensive side of the ball, are stumbling a little in the red zone and Baltimore are ranked fourth in red zone defense. 

The Ravens' front seven will bear down on a poor Packers' O line and Lacy will need to get going to slow that pass rush and allow Rodgers to spread the love among Cobb, Jones, Finley and Nelson. Baltimore need to blitz cannily, because Rodgers has the ability to step up and Jimmy Smith, Lardarius Webb and Corey Graham look over-matched deep, even if it's a question of sheer number of targets. However, Suggs is going to give David Bakhtiari fits and I suspect Rodgers will have a tough day.

The Baltimore O line has been a problem all season, but the arrival of Eugene Monroe should now pay dividends and that's important because Torrey Smith is tearing it up, Marlon Brown has talent and the Green Bay pass defense is awful. 

Flacco is, well, Flacco, but he has been airing it out more and does have the talent; let's hope a little more time against a Pack D that is missing its key player in Clay Matthews (as well as Brad Jones and possibly Casey Hayward) will allow Flacco to show SB MVP form.

Feeding Ray Rice the rock should pay off too, with Green Bay likely softer against the run this week with linebackers down. The stats bear it out: if Ray Rice gets the pill, the Ravens are far more potent. Geddit?

I'll take the points at home.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens +3 @ 1.83

Pick: 1st TD Jermichael Finley @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Torrey Smith @ 2.25; James Jones @ 2.7

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ATS (15-11, +3.89)
Totals (5-5, -0.37)

1st TD (4-11, +24)
Anytime TD (19-20, +10.71)

Season (+38.23)