Buffalo rank second in average yards per game on the ground and this reflects E J Manuel's fairly limited passing game and he'll be hard pressed tonight if he tries to beat the Browns with his arm. Worse still, Cleveland have been tough against the run, ranking fourth, and both Spiller and Jackson are carrying injuries coming off a short week.
The Browns are ticking nicely on offense, with the emergence of Hoyer under centre and Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon downfield. Again, this doesn't bode well for the visitors who are nicked up and missing bodies in the secondary.
The hope for the Bills is that they can limit Hoyer by getting the pass rush home, because forcing Cleveland to their unsettled run game will slow them considerably and for all his success, Hoyer hasn't Weeden's arm. Buffalo gave Joe Flacco a torrid time last week (that cost me real money!) so it won't all be easy sledding.
On balance, I like the favourites here, in what should be a low scoring affair.
Pick: Cleveland Browns -3.5 @ 1.95
(12-9, +2.29)
(12-9, +2.29)
Pick: Under 41.5 @ 1.91
(5-3, +1.63)
Pick: 1st TD Davone Bess @ 17
(4-17, +28)
Pick: Anytime TD Josh Gordon @ 2.1; Fred Jackson @ 2.62
(11-15, +5.26)
(11-15, +5.26)
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