Monday, 2 September 2013

Live MLB - St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds 6pm ESPN

Brutal. Last night's game went just as I thought ... then three runs in the 8th picked my pocket.

Both of this afternoon's hurlers are strong, but have oddly poor numbers against today's opposition. 

Wainwright and Latos are both in Sagarin's top fifteen. The former is in the top ten, but is 5-8 with a 4.84 ERA in 14 starts against Cincinnati. Similarly, Latos is 4-5 with a 6.25 ERA in 11 starts against St Louis.

I'm going with Wainwright's marginally better career numbers and splits and the fact that the Cardinals have won five of their last seven at Cincinnati. 

The road dog looks value.

Pick: St Louis Cardinals @ 2.05

73 - 76 (+3.26)

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