Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers 9.25pm Sky Sports

The Green Bay offensive line. That's where this pick stands or falls.

Yes, Dom Capers has gone to school (literally) on Colin Kaepernick and the pistol/read option and Green Bay will make it more uncomfortable for the 49ers' trigger man than when Kaepernick murdered them in the Division game in last season's post-season, but the Packers still look vulnerable on defense, and although Clay Matthews is a beast (he'll hit Kaepernick every time he's within three steps, ball or not) the loss of some personnel and their general quality means that as long as the 49ers have progressed their offensive plans, Kaepernick should be able to execute, with Gore to punch it up the middle and Boldin and Davis available deeper.

Aldon Smith will give David Bakhtiari a torrid time when Green Bay have the ball and Aaron Rodgers will struggle to stay upright, just as he did last season when he took an astonishing 51 sacks. First rounder Eric Reid bolsters an already ferocious secondary and he'll be keen to make an impression; his battle with Jermichael Finley will be fascinating. Rodgers will try to get guys like Cobb underneath to try to get the ball out quickly and avoid pressure, but there's likely to be little room to operate.

The introduction of Eddie Lacy should be interesting, as Green Bay drafted to get a run game, but again, running on the 49ers at home is a nightmarish start.

All that said, Rodgers is a QB of sublime talent and he has people to throw to who are dangerous receivers. Kaepernick has to have evolved, because the ability to adapt is what marks out the NFL in pro-sports and he won't have anything like the room to operate this year.

This one? Keep stakes small, but I like the home team to take it by maybe a TD.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -4.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Colin Kaepernick @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Anquan Boldin @ 2.5