NFL - Green Bay (10-0) at Detroit (7-3)

Sky Sports, Thursday November 24th, 5.30pm

49 years ago ... the Packers — 10-0 and the winners of 12 straight games, including the 1961 N.F.L. championship — went to Detroit on Thanksgiving and fell in one of the more stunning losses of the Vince Lombardi era.

Tiger Stadium was filled with 57,598 fans on a blustery afternoon, and millions more tuned in to CBS for the noon start.  “Everyone watched that game ... God and his 12 disciples were watching.” 

Roger Weintraub in yesterday’s NYT

The seemingly unstoppable Green and Gold machine is certainly going to be tested today, but unlike ’62, this will be less about a heroic defensive effort than an offensive slugfest.

Rodgers has the usual array of talent downfield (I won’t discuss them all again) and is going up against a Detroit defense that has given up points in its last two games, and appears on the downswing statistically, but still ranks 8^th against the pass.

The Lion’s pass rush has 27 sacks on the season and Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley and Kyle Vanden Bosch can bring pressure on Rodgers, whose O line has been less than stellar. The problem is that blitzing someone as talented as Rodgers, with the options he has deep, is dangerous because by definition that will leave gaps in behind. The only real chance of throttling Rodgers’ production is bringing pressure from that talented front four without bringing everyone; something Detroit can do, but it’s a slim hope.

One critical difference may be the absence of James Starks. Green Bay rely on Starks to grind it out late (he ranks second in the NFL with 229 rushing yards in the fourth quarter) and need him to change it up during the game. Detroit’s wide-nine defense makes them susceptible to the run (and indeed they rank 27^th against the run) so it would be nice to see Ryan Grant get going – if you bet in-running, bear in mind that Kuhn will get the carries close in.

Detroit however, have discovered Kevin Smith, and Dom Capers will have to respect the damage he might do against a soft Packers’ run D (12^th). Matt Stafford with time to throw will give any team problems, let alone Green Bay’s 31^st rank pass defense and the Packers don’t sack opposition QBs as much as they’d like.

When you have a reborn Nate Burleson out wide and TEs Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler matching up on Desmond Bishop and A.J. Hawk who are rotten in coverage, to throw to things are pretty good, but then you have maybe the most physically dominating wide receiver in the game there too - Calvin ‘megatron’ Johnson (despite a couple of blank weeks) will score, but I’m not having him at 1/3.

This could be a great game, and an offensive arm wrestle should be fun to watch (even if traditionalists like me will prattle on about football being a circus these days) and Detroit will fancy their chances today, but I’m going to take Aaron Rodgers to get his team home – just.

Pick: Packers -6 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1^st TD Jordy Nelson @ 11.0; 1000; 10/1

Kevin Smith @ 9.0; 800; 8/1

Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Pettigrew @ 2.6; 160; 8/5