NFL - Tennessee (5-4) at Atlanta (5-4)

Sky Sports, Saturday November 20th, 9.15pm

One day, I want to decide to go for it on fourth and inches on my own one yard line ... and if I get the new Madden from Father Christmas, I will. However, it would be best if Mike Smith avoids that temptation tonight – it’s not as if I liked the prat when he was on Radio 1. (I’ll need to edit that for my other blog).

The Titans rank 22^nd against the run and Michael Turner ranks 6^th in yards gained on the season – it’s not a difficult gameplan to put together. Turner has to get going, because Ryan is going to be missing one of his most dangerous downfield threats, and if the Falcons don’t move it on the ground, things could get tricky. Barrett Ruud is back for the Titans, which is encouraging, although he’s carrying an injury and is still questionable.

Matt Ryan still has weapons out wide, (though they’re nicked up a bit) and they match up well physically on the Titans’ secondary who although they are capable (Cortland Finnegan shut down Steve Smith last week) lack size. The Titans gave Cam Newton a rough ride in that game and that’s another reason why Turner, and to a lesser extent Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers, need to find room, because Ryan reacts poorly to pressure and when he is forced to throw a lot (for example if the Falcons get behind) Atlanta lose.

Tony Gonzalez will likely figure prominently again and he continues to get looks in the redzone and score regularly – he’s more than just an outlet for Ryan, and can exploit Tennessee’s sometimes patchy zone defense over the middle, especially if the Titans have to commit players to defending the run, so I’ll take an interest in Tony G in the TD market.

Atlanta are very tough against the run and it’s very difficult to accurately gauge whether Chris Johnson’s showing last week really did signal a return to form. The likelihood is that Hasselbeck will air it out against a weak Falcons secondary (rank 23^rd) and Nate Washington and Damian Williams could prosper – which gives you some indication of Atlanta’s poor pass D. John Abraham represents the pass rush, on his own; it’s no accident that the Falcons rarely sack anyone and that would suggest Hasselbeck should have time to pick his targets. Don’t underestimate the loss of Kenny Britt though – like I said, it’s Nate Washington and Damian Williams out wide now.

Both QBs will feel they can attack the other team deep, but I’m going to hope that Atlanta’s obvious advantage with Michael Turner holds up and they establish the run, then pick apart the Titans’ pass defense. There could be points in the dome.

Pick: Falcons-6.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: Over 43.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1^st TD Michael Turner @ 5.0; 400; 4/1

Chris Johnson @ 7.0; 600; 6/1

Pick: Anytime TD Tony Gonzalez @ 1.91; -110; 10/11