Saturday, 12 November 2011

NFL - Pittsburgh (6-3) at Cincinnati (6-2)


Sky Sports, Sunday November 13th, 6pm

Ben Roethlisberger has come to the party, and with key aspects of his protection coming together, I like him to get it done here. The Bengals have put up impressive numbers on defense this season, but have faced Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton, Alex Smith, Blaine Gabbert, Curtis Painter, Tarvaris Jackson and Matt Hasselbeck. Big Ben will be a different challenge.

Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown have the sort of vertical speed that will test Chris Crocker and Reggie Nelson who struggle deep, and the Cincy corners can be exploited by a passer of Roethlisberger’s quality. Carlos Dunlap, Michael Johnson, and Robert Geathers have given the Bengals a potent pass rush, but the re-signed Max Starks (son of Bengals Super Bowl XVI defensive end Ross Browner – betcha didn’t know that) seems to have stabilised the O line by securing Roethlisberger’s ‘blind side’.

One continuing problem with the offensive line is really punching holes for Rashard Mendenhall, and he will be going against a strong run D tonight. The Steelers are a throw first attack these days, but they need to keep the defense off balance by changing it up and I’d like to see Mendy get more touches because he is in such good form. Bottom line; he’s there if Ben needs him.

Andy Dalton. Wow. I know it’s not cool to talk fantasy, but I was asked to join a keeper league over the pond this season and blew up the team I had and stashed chunks of the Bengals’ offense; there were grumblings about the new manager (even a message during the draft of ‘Do you know who’s throwing to these guys?’) and look what happened. I never imaged Dalton/Green/Gresham (out) would be who they’ve turned out to be, but tonight the big beasts come into town and Dalton may find it a whole new challenge to find his receivers.

Dick LeBeau will throw everything they have against Dalton, including James Harrison, in a series of zone blitzes and different schemes. Dalton has been very self-possessed in the pocket and it will be interesting to see how composed he remains; he certainly has the weapons.

Green has the sort of speed that the Ravens used thieve the game from the Steelers last week, but it highlighted a weakness in the Pittsburgh secondary – Green has the physical presence too to challenge the Steelers’ corners who will try to out muscle him at the line.

Cedric Benson is a downhill runner, and he’ll get plenty of touches, but he’s unlikely to find much room against a Steelers’ D that has limited Benson to 3.3 yards per carry and two touchdowns in six games.

I’m backing Ben. Lots of throws to his speed receivers and a solid performance on D means I’ll give the points.

Pick: Steelers -3.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Heath Miller @ 15.0; 1400; 14/1 - A. J. Green @ 8.5; 750; 15/2

Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 2.8; 180; 9/5

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