NFL - NY Jets (5-4) at Denver (4-5)

Sky, Friday November 18th, 1.20am

Florida’s read option offense will get a run out against a no-nonsense defensive coach. I’ve always felt these variations have a limited shelf-life; when the wildcat formation leaked into the NFL from college football, it caused a good deal of confusion before teams got used to the unfamiliar look and its effectiveness has declined.

The same may be true of Tebow and the Broncos, the question is whether the Jets are the team to begin to bottle it up. It’s certainly true the Jets are off a short week, but they’ll have studied hard and I’m confident they can take steps to counter the option offense, largely because the Jets’ defense matches up well on this type of attack – with strong corners, New York can pack the box to jam up the run and dare the Broncos to throw.

To make things worse for Denver, Moreno is done for the season and Willis McGahee has tweaked a hammy and will be limited – that makes this type of offense much more difficult to operate, as multiple ball carriers are essential. If Tebow is forced to throw it, then he’s playing into Rex Ryan’s hands and his 8^th ranked pass defense.

I’ve mentioned previously that the return of Mangold has helped the Jets’ O a great deal and given the ‘ground and pound’ philosophy (and LT’s injury) I expect to see Greene get the rock a lot tonight and he can put up some numbers against a Denver run defense that ranks 16^th. Von Miller is like a man possessed at the moment, and the Broncos are racking up the sacks, so Wayne Hunter will have a tough night - getting the run going will be crucial to protecting Sanchez, who was sacked five times by the anaemic Pats’ pass rush last week.

If the run does get going, then Sanchez will be allowed to take the occasional shot and although they’re a little banged up, his options downfield match up nicely; Burress, Holmes and Keller should get looks in the red zone.

Although Tebow will doubtless be asked to throw it more in this game (being so one dimensional has distinct disadvantages) the Jets are not the team to start to develop your throwing game against. Denver are vulnerable on the ground and will start to leave gaps vertically as they try to stop the run. The Jets have too much on both sides of the ball. I’ll give the points.

Pick: Jets -6 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1^st TD Plaxico Burress @ 13.0; 1200; 12/1

Tim Tebow @ 9.0; 800; 8/1

Pick: Anytime TD Jets Defense @ 4.0; 300; 3/1