NFL - Miami (3-7) at Dallas (6-4)

Sky Sports, Thursday November 24th, 9.15pm

The knock on Romo was that he turned the ball over too much, but recently he’s started looking after the pill much better and the team’s fortunes have followed, with some nice results’ however, he’s still prone to missing the occasional easy target and he’s running into a team that hasn’t allowed a TD in the last three games, so he’d better be sharp. Cameron Wake and Koa Misi will bring pressure and there is some talent in the Fins’ secondary. The most important factor in support of Dallas though, is the emergence of DeMarco Murray to complement the deep threats from Dez Bryant, Laurent Robinson and Jason Witten.

DE Jared Odrick has been excellent for Miami, who have been strong against the run, but Murray catches out of the backfield and Felix Jones is getting well. Dez Bryant will draw Vontae Davis, so I’m looking for Laurent Robinson (matching up on Sean Smith and the beatable safeties Reshad Jones and Yeremiah Bell) to get some love from Tony on Thanksgiving. With FB Tony Fiammetta still out, Witten may find himself with blocking duties all day as the Cowboys try to get the run going, because that’s the key here on offense, so he’s less attractive in the TD stakes.

Matt Moore, who knew? He’s developed into a competent game manager, but that may not be enough tonight. He’ll have to make some plays, but he can be encouraged that the Dallas secondary has been poor of late and Mike Jenkins and Gerald Sensabaugh are out. Moore has the targets, but it’s worth noting that the Dolphins don’t have him throwing it out wide and they’ll need to in this game which may shift their QB out of his comfort zone. Brandon Marshall can have a big game tonight – he’ll likely match up on Terence Newman and of these two old men, the former should be able to dominate. Look for the Miami TEs this evening, who can exploit poor coverage and a nicked up Sensebaugh, while not demanding too much of Moore.

If the Dolphins can get Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush going, that’ll also fit the gameplan that has brought them this recent success; DeMarcus Ware and his buddies will be on Moore all game and (outside of Jake Long) the best way to slow the Dallas pass rush is to get the ball moving out of the backfield. The Cowboys’ linebackers lack pace and getting Bush to the outside, while using Thomas in a more direct role, can test the home side who have struggled against the run.

There’s been a bit of flip flopping for me on this pick ATS, but America’s team at home, on Thanksgiving Day, should have enough, so I’ll give the points.

Pick: Cowboys  -7 @ 2.00; 100; Evens

Pick: 1st TD Dez Bryant @ 8.0; 700; 7/1

Anthony Fasano @ 13.0; 1200; 12/1

Pick: Anytime TD Laurent Robinson @ 2.0; 100; Evens