Last week I wrote, “The riddle of Rivers; what’s
out of whack?” Well, whatever it is, it doesn’t look like he’s working it out.
I was reading an interview with LaDainian Tomlinson during the week (and if
anyone can understand Rivers’ game, it must be LT) and he believes that his old
QB is ‘distracted’, although quite by what, it’s difficult to know, so the
mystery continues.
Looking at the Bolts’ trigger man’s numbers for the
last five years, we see that his TD/INT ratio is 30/13; 28;9; 34/11; 21/15;
22/9 and ... 7/11. That’s not going to get anything done in the NFL.
Tonight’s matchup won’t help; the San Diego
receivers aren’t getting separation, making Rivers force in passes, and he
doesn’t seem to have the zip or accuracy to keep doing that, besides which, the
Green Bay corners are strong. Rivers is getting sacked much too much (11 times
in four games) behind a line that is finding it difficult to protect him,
so expect the Pack to bring the house;
Clay Matthews matching up on Jeromey Clary is a nightmare for the home team.
The Chargers’ run game is struggling with injuries,
with Tolbert looking to carry the load, and although Green Bay have given up
yards on the ground recently, they’ve done so against an elite group of backs.
Tolbert might find some room, but I think Rivers could find himself throwing a
lot, particularly if they get behind. His favourite target, Antonio Gates (some
people have speculated his injury has been part of the reason Rivers has looked
so lacklustre) is getting fitter, and that on its own should mean he’ll get the
ball; Gates was only robbed of a score last week by a duff penalty call.
Green Bay? Rodgers to variously: Jennings (look for
a big play deep, early), Nelson, Finley, Driver, Jones with Grant and Starks
changing it up. Luis Castillo and Shaun Phillips are banged up and it’s
unlikely Rodgers is going to come under too much pressure and even if he does,
he tends to find something downfield. The Chargers, Weddle apart, are weak deep
and the way Rodgers spreads the love, it could be a torrid night for the San
Diego secondary.
Now, this all sounds like the Packers should blow
the doors off the Chargers, but San Diego aren’t hopeless, particularly at home
(and Rivers’ record as a dog is 12-6 ATS) and if their QB ‘gets well’ they’ll
be transformed, because more than any other sport, the player under centre in
the NFL sets the quality of his whole team, but for me the big danger is the
Packers switching back on after a Bye week (and extended time off from Mike
McCarthy) keeping their concentration, and keeping the hammer down – however,
they demand to be backed here.
Pick:
Packers -5.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick:
1st TD Greg Jennings @ 8.5; 750; 15/2
Pick:
Anytime TD Antonio Gates @ 2.37; 137; 11/8
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