NFL - Atlanta (10-6) at New York Giants (9-7)

Sky Sports, Sunday 6pm

Well, I’ve nailed my colours to the Giants’ mast and they have to least win out here to bring any trade into play, so my pick here isn’t much of a mystery.

Behind an offensive line that has improved lately, Eli Manning can attack a defense that has a pass rush that struggles to get home and boasts a secondary that ranks 20th in yards given up. This means New York can spread it out and look for the big passing plays that have been the hallmark of their offense this season, against a group that is carrying an injury to its best corner, Brent Grimes and struggles in coverage. Look for Cruz out of the slot where his speed and route running make him one of the most dangerous receivers in football. Hakeem Nicks has the physicality to dominate his coverage  and when Manningham is added in to three receiver sets, the challenge should be too much for the dirty birds. I like it even more if Ballard is back.

Besides the aerial attack, the Giants can also bring Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to bear; the former can also do damage catching and has been racking up TDs down the stretch. New York can change it up with Brandon Jacobs and even D.J. Ware is getting touches; the Giants tend to move to the ground in the redzone, so look for a score or two from these backs. Atlanta haven’t been bad against the run, but the absence of strongside linebacker Stephen Nicholas has hampered the stop unit and they’ve given up yards recently.

However, Atlanta can’t be taken lightly. Matt Ryan is talented and he has nice options with Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez receiving and Michael Turner out of the backfield. The move to a no huddle offense has given momentum to the Falcons recently and there’s no denying the Giants do suffer from a poor secondary that can blow coverage.

I’m hoping this game turns on the New York pass rush limiting Ryan, who will need to get the ball out quickly and accurately, and although he prospers at home in the dome, he’s less effective outside on the road; Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora need to bring it though.

Similarly, Michael Turner, whose hamstring is still suspect, seems not to like the road, and the New York run defense has tightened up in the last few games, so he should be held in check – particularly as the Falcons will likely try to attack with the throw.

This won’t be a stroll for the G men in East Rutherford, but I’ll give the points.

Pick: Giants -3 @ 2.00; 100; Evens

Pick: First TD Ahmad Bradshaw @ 8.0; 700; 7/1

Pick: Anytime TD Roddy White @ 2.00; 100; Evens

Pick: Over 47.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11