Saturday, 14 January 2012

NFL - Denver (9-8) at New England (13-3)


Sky Sports, Sunday 1am

Tebow made me look more foolish than usual last week (as difficult as that is!) and this time, I’m going to give him another chance – 13.5 points is just too much to give here with a Pats’ D that is awful and a team that only seems to get rolling in the 2nd quarter. My suspicion is that people believe Tebow is due a shellacking, and while the Broncos may not win, they don’t look a 13.5 point dog.

Denver beat (an admittedly decimated) Steelers who still had Ike Taylor in the secondary with Troy Polamalu; Tebow had only ten completions, but they were big, devastating plays – just the sort of thing the Pats have specialised in conceding. Also, consider this; when these teams met in Week Fifteen, Willis McGahee gained 70 yards on his first 7 carries, before pulling his hamstring and there’s nothing to suggest he can’t take the New England 17th ranked rush defense for some big yards again.

Demaryius Thomas should give guys like Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington fits and Tebow obviously doesn’t mind slinging it to him (I hate those mechanics, just like everyone else) and even Eddie Royal has re-emerged, as Eric Decker has hit the sidelines.

A real issue is ball safety; Denver mustn’t put the ball on the floor and McGahee’s fumble late last week gives me pause.

The Patriots will score, with all that talent it’s probably more difficult not to put up a decent points tally, but Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller are getting up to speed and can keep Brady more than honest. The secondary are going to struggle containing the excellent New England Tight Ends and talent deep, but if Champ Bailey and his buddies can avoid breaking, Denver can cover.

Something to bear in mind if you’re trading in-running; look for Brady switching to a no-huddle offense if they’re behind as they have been in recent games; New England can catch up in a hurry.

C’mon Tim, I don’t rate you as a QB, but if you spit in my eye again, I can make a few quid. Take the points.

Pick: Broncos +13.5 @ 2.00; 100; Evens

Pick: 1st TD Willis McGahee @ 11; 1000; 10/1
Pick: Anytime TD Deion Branch 2.75; 175; 7/4

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