NFL - Cincinnati (9-7) at Houston (10-6)

Saturday 9.30pm, Sky Sports 2

An intriguing opening to the Wildcard Weekend, with two rookie triggermen facing off.

The Bengals’ pass rush has been quietly efficient (5^th most in the NFL) and with T.J.Yates banged up, he’s not someone I’m entirely happy to rely upon, even in his limited role handing the ball off and making short throws to keep the chains moving.

In post-season games, a golden rule is to consider who’s next up if a QB is vulnerable, and next on the Houston depth chart after Yates is Jake Delhomme. The Texans are giving up too many sacks and Jake’s one hit away; at the very least I expect a giveaway or two with Yates under pressure.

The Bengals will have their hands full against a powerful ground attack, and Andre Johnson coming back makes the Houston O much less one dimensional. Still, Arian Foster will carry the Texans’ offense, and although the Bengals limited him when they met in the regular season, I’d expect more of him here against a run D that has given up yards on the ground recently.

Yates has Johnson going up against a Cincinnati secondary that has been patchy without Leon Hall and the Bengals’ safeties are poor in coverage – look for the Houston TEs to get involved. However, Johnson is likely to be a little rusty and it may be that the respect he demands will be just as important as his actual production.

Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati offense are a work in progress, but A.J. Green has been a revelation – unfortunately, Jonathan Joseph will sit on Green all day and that, coupled with Green’s bad shoulder, should mean that ‘the red rifle’ won’t find his premier receiver in much space. There are other options downfield, but not much beyond Simpson and Gresham.

The Texans can bring pressure off the edge with Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin and through the middle with J.J. Watt and Antonio Smith. Dalton will need help from Cedric Benson, and this is where I see the biggest breakdown in the Bengals’ hopes – the Texans are a tough defense and Benson hasn’t the talent to break it open, added to which he has started putting it on the deck. He’ll need to see the rock a lot to put up numbers, but by then Houston may have put the game away.

A telling stat? The Cincinnati Bengals have an 0-7 record versus opponents that have qualified for the postseason. Mind you, the Houston Texans got put away by the mighty Colts.

I don’t like the move off the key number, because I think this will be close (I took some -3 earlier in the week and it is still available, but it’s a little skinny now) but I’ll still give the points.

Pick: Texans -4 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1^st TD Arian Foster @ 6.0; 500; 5/1

Pick: Anytime TD Joel Dreesen @ 4.33; 333;10/3

Pick: Anytime TD James Casey @ 8.5; 750; 15/2

Pick: Andre Johnson Total Receiving Yards Under 67.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: Total Match Sacks Over 4.5 @ 2.00; 100; Evens