NFL - New Orleans (14-3) at San Francisco (13-3)

Sky Sports, Saturday 9.15pm

This is a real beauty of a match up and I’m going to take the Saints to march into the Conference final.

A home, dome team? Well, this season New Orleans were only 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road; contrast San Francisco at home, who went 7-1 SU/ 7-0-1 ATS. However, although it’s outside, the weather forecast looks good, with low winds – a bonus at a sometimes blustery Candlestick Park.

These worrying stats aside, this is the classic meeting of a scalding hot offense and a stop unit that has a front seven that would put the fear of god into any QB and a special teams group that are expert at pinning opponents deep. The 49ers have allowed just 10 points in total in their last three games at home. They also boast a plus 28 turnover differential and Brees will need to be as accurate as he’s been all season.

Obviously, the easiest way of slowing Drew Brees is to get to him, and while the superb duo of  Aldon and Justin Smith will be looking to disrupt the rhythm so vital to a high tempo offense like the Saints, pressure without blitzing is important in order not to ‘sell out’ the coverage.

The problem with pressuring Brees is twofold; he reads the defense and distributes the ball so intelligently and so quickly that he dissipates the pressure, and the New Orleans’ line, which has kept Brees on his feet all season, is difficult to out-muscle. The arm wrestle at the line of scrimmage will be fascinating.

The 49ers are almost impossible to run on, but the Saints can’t be one dimensional; although Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory will still see touches, it is Darren Sproles with his speed who is the wildcard on the edges and the Saints need him to find some room.

If the San Francisco defense has a weakness (and it’s only relative to its strength elsewhere) it’s out wide and that’s dangerous against New Orleans and Drew Brees who have a particular talent for attacking at the perimeter and deep. The Saints rank 1^st in the NFL in passing yards and Brees has a multitude of targets beyond his favourite, Jimmy Graham. The 49ers have talent at the corners with Carlos Rogers and Chris Culliver, but they can be beaten on the back end. I suspect the Saints will look for some big plays early to try to get out in front quickly.

If New Orleans manage to get a lead early, that will dull the 49ers greatest threat on offense; Frank Gore and the speedy Kendall Hunter. The Saints have actually been stout against the run, and Gore may still be nicked up, but he will still set the tone of this side of the ball for the home team.

Gore will also slow down the pressure that the Saints will inevitably want to bring against the reborn Alex Smith. He has protected the ball beautifully all season, but is still vulnerable and I expect Greg Williams to use a variety of scheme and people after Smith.

The 49ers real problem is that while New Orleans are notoriously poor against the pass, outside Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis (who are admittedly talented - Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter had better be ‘on’) there aren’t many options downfield and those that there are, are carrying injuries.

And that’s the essential difference; yes, Drew Brees will be severely challenged by the the 49ers’ defense, but New Orleans will score 20+ points, the difficulty for the home team is that I don’t see where San Francisco get enough points to take the game, and I have the Saints at lest a field goal better, so I’ll give the points.

Pick: Saints -3.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: First TD Michael Crabtree @ 13; 1200; 12/1

Pick: Anytime TD Marcus Colston @ 2.00; 100; Evens