NFL - Houston (11-6) at Baltimore (12-4)

Sky Sports, Sunday 6pm

I like Baltimore here; T.J. Yates has struggled manfully to keep the Texans rolling behind their running game, but the Ravens have an aggressive defense and Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs et al are likely to give him a very tough time this afternoon. It is possible to get after the Baltimore corners, but attacking Cary Williams and Lardarius Webb means getting the ball to Andre Johnson and Ed Reed will be all over Johnson, helping his corners; Baltimore don’t give up many passing TDs.

The Texans’ offense is Arian Foster, who not only moves the chains rushing and catching, but takes operates to take the pressure off Yates. The problem here is that the Ravens are tough against the run, and can clog up the middle with guys like Terrence Cody and Haloti Ngata. Ben Tate will back up Foster and it’ll be his job to wear down the old guys on the Ravens’ line with his straight ahead power – but he’ll face the same problems; old guys are also wiley old veterans playing in their house.

Joe Flacco hardly inspires; he can be shaky and facing a pass rush as strong as the Texans’ is a rough matchup. He has the arm, but the temperament is dubious and rather like Yates, he’ll want to lean on his running game in Ray Rice, who took Houston for 161 total yards (101 on the ground) last time these teams met. Rice won’t have an easy time of it up against Connor Barwin, DeMeco Ryans, and Brian Cushing, but he worked it out before and should find a way today; it is crucial though, that he sees the rock early and often – let’s hope Cam Cameron hasn’t forgotten that as he sometimes does.

Flacco’s strong arm means that the Ravens occasionally threaten to break off a big passing play, usually relying on the speed of Torrey Smith. The return of Anquan Boldin is encouraging for Flacco and the Ravens and although Boldin will doubtless see a lot of Johnathan Joseph, he does offer options vertically.

In truth, these are pretty evenly matched teams (the money is split 51/49 in the Ravens’ favour) and the deciding factors may be that the Ravens are at home and that they boast veterans who have seen the post-season before, including Flacco. This could be a low scoring affair with two tough defenses on show against questionable QBs, so an interest in the totals could be worth shopping around for.

Pick: Ravens -7.5 @ 1.95; -105; 20/21 (B365)

Pick: 1^st TD Andre Johnson @ 12; 1100; 11/1

Pick: Anytime TD Joel Dreesen @ 4.5; 350; 7/2

Pick: Under 37 @ 1.95; -105; 20/21