NFL - NY Giants (10-7) at Green Bay (15-1)

Sky Sports, Sunday 9.30pm

I wrote a couple of weeks ago:

‘I’m loving the Giants. I like their balance on offense – Manning has been clutch and Cruz is a devastating deep threat. The two headed running game can give them options on offense too. Their defense is coming together, particularly up front where Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and the returning Osi Omenyura could severely limit opposition QBs. They look worth backing if only for trading purposes.

Pick: NFC Champs New York Giants @ 15.0; 1400 ;14/1

Pick: Super Bowl winner New York Giants @ 26; 2500; 25/1’

Well, I’ve layed a fair chunk of it back now and I like Green Bay to cover in tonight’s game.

All of the above is still true, and everyone is picking the Giants as this weekend’s ‘Dog Most Likely’, but I’m betting on Rodgers.

The G-Men have the weapons to slow any QB – pressure without blitzing and a solid run game - but their weakness on the back end means that as long as Green Bay keep Rodgers upright (and you don’t have to do that for long with someone that talented and with that many options) he can get after the Giants’ weak secondary. The Packers will spread it out and then look for any of the legion of GB receivers, including a fit again Greg Jennings.

The knock on the Packers is their defense, but again, they’ve spent two weeks getting guys fit and they led the league in interceptions and had a terrific +24 turnover margin – and we saw the effect of stats like that last night in San Francisco.

I’m going with the least favourite favourite of the week.

Pick: Packers -7.5 @ 1.95; -105; 20/21 (PP)

Pick: 1^st TD Greg Jennings @ 9; 800; 8/1

Pick: Anytime TD Jermichael Finley @ 2.2; 120; 6/5