Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings Sky Sports 9.25pm

Green Bay look as though they're hitting stride nicely as the post-season looms and this game will decide whether they get a first round bye. Minnesota need to win to make the post-season, so this should be a cracker.
Rodgers has finally got the offense ticking, but the Vikings' pass rush can bring pressure, so his offensive line needs to give him an opportunity to hit the talent Green Bay have in abundance downfield. Rodgers will have a miraculously rejuvenated Ryan Grant (in tandem with Alex Green) to fall back on in the run game and they'll be critical to keeping the Vikes off-balance.
Adrian Peterson. A player who had his knee rebuilt and promptly tears off a season that not only threatens a 2000yd season, but also Eric Dickerson's out of sight record of 2105. Again, the Packers' defense is on an upward curve and they'll doubtless stack the box to limit 'all-day', but he took them last time and I wouldn't want to oppose a big game from him tonight. Christian Ponder's role is mostly to hand it to Peterson and there are few options downfield - so Mike McCarthy will likely dare him to beat Green Bay with his arm and that seems a remote possibility.
The Packers have too many options on offense and can control things on defense. I'll give the points.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -3 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD: Greg Jennings @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Jermichael Finley @ 2.9

Live NFL - Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions Sky Sports 6pm

Once again, the live games are bets I particularly like and they are worth throwing into a multiple:
Chicago -3
Green Bay -3
Houston -6.5

£15 Trixie pays £200
Bears at Detroit
I've mentioned before that I'm not a fan of situational betting, but the Bears have to win to have a chance at the post-season and that must play here.
More important is the ability of the Chicago' defense to take away the ball, coupled with Detroit's willingness to give it away: the Bears lead the league in causing turnovers and the Lions rank seventh in giveaways in the NFL.
Matt Stafford will want to feed megatron to get him over the 2000yd mark and while it's a pretty terrifying thought that one of the finest wide receivers to have ever played football is going to be targeted even more than normal, it may signal a one-dimensional threat and the potential for picks, particularly if Charles Tillman goes.
Chicago aren't exactly lighting it up with their passing game, despite having the excellent Brandon Marshall finally showing his real class, and Cutler clearly doesn't trust guys like Davis and the talented, if raw, Alshon Jeffery, so it's vital that a banged up Forte gets rolling and the horrible Chicago O line keeps Cutler upright - Nick Fairley's absence is a big bonus for the visitors here. Cutler will get sacked, but he just can't get beat up/rendered completely useless!
I like the Bears' D to be the D-ifference though (clever, huh?) and I'll give the field goal.
Pick: Chicago Bears -3 @ 2.00

Pick: 1st TD Calvin Johnson @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Alshon Jeffery @ 3.25

Live NFL - New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens Sky Sports 9.30pm

Two horribly out of sorts teams: the Giants struggled to move the chains last week and the Ravens have been badly hit by injuries - the key may be the return of Ahmad Bradshaw.
Pick: New York Giants -1.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Victor Cruz @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Martellus Bennett @ 3

Live NFL - Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers Sky Sports 6pm

I hope my reader will excuse my brevity, but I've got a house full of family and guests and long write-ups are out!
I have to take the Steelers here; a tough defense, at home, against a team it has beaten ten of the last twelve times they've met. I want the half point, though, with a solid Bengals still in the hunt for the post-season.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 @ 1.85

Pick: 1st TD A.J. Green @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Heath Miller @ 2.1

Live NFL - Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions BBC Red Button 1.30am

It's difficult to see Detroit dominating Atlanta sufficiently to get a result here. Megatron is at his freakish best and will severely test a Falcons' secondary that is down some personnel and looks vulnerable, but Stafford will have to have a perfect game and he's been inconsistent lately and prone to throwing picks, or missing his passes. Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell have some punch out of the backfield, but even though the Atlanta run D is workmanlike at best, Detroit may well be playing from behind.
 
The Falcons can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a victory and with Nick Fairley and Jacob Lacey out and Louis Delmas injured, the Lions are looking threadbare on defense. Matt Ryan torched the pathetic Giants last week and while I don't expect such a gutless performance from the home team tonight, Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez should have big games. Detroit are pretty thin on the line with the loss of Fairley, and haven't much of a pass rush (18th in sacks on the year) so Ryan should have room to pass; equally, although it's not much of a run game, Atlanta will at least have that option.
 
I like the Falcons here; they have the momentum, the form and the incentive. The Lions are looking at draft picks.
 
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Calvin Johnson @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Julio Jones @ 2

Live NFL - San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots BBC Red Button 1.30am

Apologies for the Giants' pick: they stunk it up in that special way that only the G-men can!

This should be a fascinating game, but those of you who read this rubbish occasionally will know that often, I lean on Bill Belichik's ability to out-coach the opposition.

This game will depend upon the Pats success stopping the run and forcing the 49ers to pass. Frank Gore excels in the read option offense and stopping him and the scrambling ability of Colin Kaepernick will severely limit the 49ers in a game where they will need to put up points simply because New England are so potent on offense. Belichick will need to show Kaepernick some things he hasn't seen before, as well as making sure his D line shows a little more form against the run than they have recently.

As it is, San Francisco will probably have to air it out rather more than usual and there's no doubt that New England can be beaten deep; the problem is that the 49ers are pretty thin out wide with Manningham out and Vernon Davis finding it difficult to get involved. Michael Crabtree is the 'go to' receiver at the moment and he will doubtless draw Aqib Talib.

Tom Brady and the Pats' offense have been irresistible, but now they run into a defense ranked second against the run and the pass. Stevan Ridley will have to negotiate his way past NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis and it'll be really tough on the ground. The San Francisco secondary is not as strong as their ranking would suggest however, and that could be costly against a passer like Brady.

In Belichick and Brady we trust.

Pick: New England -4 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Aaron Hernandez @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Lloyd @ 3

Live NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys Sky Sports 9.20pm

The Steelers opened the week as dogs, but now find themselves marginal favourites - although they're a pick 'em with many books.

The Cowboys are 0-9 ATS at home and that run may continue. Pittsburgh have kept their last seven opponents to 200 yards or fewer passing, but have a badly nicked up secondary and their pass rush will need to be effective to keep Romo from exposing them deep. However, the Dallas O line has been awful and Romo will need to use all his talents at extending plays to keep the chains moving.

A strong run game would help, but the Cowboys haven't got the ground game going all year, for a number of reasons, and the Steelers are a fine run stopping unit, ranking 4th in the NFL. Dez Bryant's injury is a blow for Dallas - as the receiver who has the most rapport with Romo he needs to produce today, broken index finger and all.

Ben Roethlisberger looked pretty gimpy last week, but he can tough it out in the pocket and has all his receivers fit against a pass defense that has stumbled recently. Once again, the issue for the quarterback will be his offensive line which was horrible against San Diego and Ben has lost LG Willie Colon; never good with DeMarcus Ware about. That said, the Pittsburgh receivers put the ball on the floor too often last week and if they can only hold on to the rock, they should put up some yards.

Injuries to Jay Ratliff, Sean Lee and Bruce Carter have further weakened the home team's 15th ranked run defense, and it will be interesting to see how Jonathan Dwyer fares: he's a talented back, but Pittsburgh have problems along the interior of the line. That said, Dallas have given up a lot of yards on the ground recently.

Pittsburgh look more complete to me on both sides of the ball.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Dez Bryant @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Heath Miller @ 2.38

Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears Sky Sports 6pm

Week 15 NFL Trixie
A couple of the live games this week can be added to a bet I like, to make for an interesting little multiple for Christmas:
GB -2.5
NYG +1.5
Pit -2
Pays approx. 5.5
Pack @ Bears
The Bears are sliding and now meet a team that seems to have the sign over their QB. Jay Cutler is 1-6 against the Packers, going 115-of-216 for 1,383 yards, seven touchdowns and seventeen, count 'em, seventeen interceptions.
Added to this, Chicago are carrying a number of key injuries, particularly on defense, where Brian Urlacher, Tim Jennings, Lance Briggs and Henry Melton are out or injured. Aaron Rodgers hasn't exactly had the visitor's offense purring this season, but they look like it's coming together with Randall Cobb stepping up, Jennings coming back and the sudden arrival of a running game. Green Bay's O line has been poor, but the Bears' injuries will help, and Rodgers should see the matchups he wants downfield.
Chicago had a terrible time against the Packers' defense in week 2; Cutler went 11-of-27 for 126 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions, while getting sacked seven times. Unfortunately, Cutler is injured now and it looks as though Clay Matthews is back. It's likely therefore, that Cutler will be under pressure for much of the game, limiting the pass, which is a shame because Brandon Marshall is on fire. So, Matt Forte must give Cutler a run game to slow down the Green Bay D. The Pack have given up yards in their last three games, but they have the wherewithal to minimise the damage.
This looks ominous for the Bears, and as long as Forte doesn't have a career day, I like Green Bay to cover less than a field goal.

Pick: Green Bay -2.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Alex Green @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Green Bay DST @ 4.5; Matt Forte @ 2 (Corals)

Live NFL - Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles Sky Sports 1.20am

Nick Foles has shown some talent since starting and had a monster game last week, but he may find that passing for yards tonight will be a little trickier. The primary reason will be the Bengals' pass rush, Cincinnati lead the NFL in sacks. Geno Atkins look like the best defensive tackle in football and will give the Eagles' O line a tough time with his speed; deeper, the Bengals are well organised.
Bryce Brown will be the lead back again, and should see more of the ball tonight to take the pressure off Foles, but the Cincinnati front seven is a decent unit against the run. The upshot is that the Eagles may struggle to move the chains consistently.
The Bengals will come up against a Philadelphia defense that showed better last week after a coaching change and jettisoning the wide-nine. The Cincinnati O line is solid and the Eagles aren't great pass rushers; the Eagles also have problem in the secondary where Nnamdi Asomugha faces what may be a long night. The Benglas also match up nicely in the slot, where Hawkins and Gresham should find room to operate.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been something of a revelation and Cincinnati should feed him the ball tonight because the Eagles can give up yards on the ground and should do tonight against a capable runner behind a decent O line.
I like the Bengals' balance on both sides of the ball and, although I'm not a great fan of situational gambling, Cincinnati need to win to keep their season alive. I'll give the points.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -4 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jermaine Gresham @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Andrew Hawkins @ 2.62

Live NFL - Houston Texans at New England Patriots BBC Red Button 1.30am

The New England defense keep generating turnovers as teams struggle to keep pace with their offense, which is its usual irresistible self: opponent's risk-taking has allowed the Pats to post a +17 turnover ratio and of course, fuel Tom Brady. The Texans bring an interesting gameplan though; they are a run first offense that sets up Schaub off play action - ball security is at a premium and they've only fumbled twice all season.
The key then, is for Houston to start well and test the New England defense. If Arian Foster gets going, it could be an interesting evening, as the home team's limited pass rush can expose a secondary that is still poor, despite the addition of Aqib Talib; Andre Johnson could put up numbers. The Pats have a decent enough run defense, but Foster is a significant challenge.
All that said, Tom Brady is going to be faced with a Texans' secondary that is on its knees, having been decimated by injury. New England only have to control the formidable J.J. Watt (a situation complicated by injuries to Logan Mankins and Dan Connolly) and Brady should be able to dissect what remains of the Houston pass defense. It's worth bearing in mind that twenty of the twenty-four TDs given up by Houston have been through the air, which is right in Brady's wheelhouse. New England are quietly putting together a nice run game too and although they could find themselves dropping into pass protection, look for Stevan Ridley close in.
I'm looking forward to this game, and although the Texans aren't getting the respect they deserve, Brady should be too much at home tonight. I give less than a TD.
Pick: New England Patriots -5.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Aaron Hernandez @ 9; Stevan Ridley @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Wes Welker @ 2.1; Andre Johnson @ 2.1

Live NFL - Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers Ch4 1.20am

Injuries make this matchup compelling.
The Lions are down to the bare boards; there' really only megatron left to throw to (there's a decent enough backfield; look for Leshoure in close) and the Packers are getting mighty thin at receiver and running back (no change there!) On the other side of the ball, Detroit have lost two starting cornerbacks and a safety and Green Bay are still without Clay Matthews - and it's difficult to call who will be missed most.
The Lions are coming off a couple of rough games and that weakness in the secondary is dangerous with a QB like Rodgers staring it down and although he's never quite got the offense ticking like usual, the return of Greg Jennings will help. Crucially, Rodgers' O line has to keep him on his feet long enough to make plays and that could be a challenge with Cliff Avril, Nick Fairley, and Ndamukong Suh rampaging along the line.
It's megatron takes on the Pack - it may be a close shave, but I'll give the points.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -6.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Jermichael Finley @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Mikel Leshoure @ 2; Greg Jennings @ 2.4

Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at New York Giants Sky Sports 9.25pm

Can the Giants stop Brees often enough?
Take the points.
Pick: New Orleans Saints +4.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Marques Colston @ 2

Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins Sky Sports 6pm

This could be a close game, but the difficulty is knowing which Joe Flacco/Ravens' offense will turn up. Baltimore are difficult to cap because it sometimes look as though they haven't really decided what the offense should look like: Ray Rice didn't carry the ball at all in the 4th quarter last week!
Presumably though, Baltimore are going to attack the shaky Washington secondary, but the home team have shown some improvement of late and have toughened up in the red zone, ranking eighth in the last three weeks. Flacco also seems less comfortable on the road, so the offense could struggle for rhythm, even against the Redskins. The Ravens have the weapons deep, and Washington are a little nicked up; it's about time Flacco showed he is made of the right stuff.
Washington are rolling on offense. RGIII is playing well and the return of Pierre Garcon has given him the chance to use his arm. The Redskins' run game is also thriving, with Alfred Morris showing real talent and he's obviously happy in the Shanny run scheme. Terrell Suggs is out and Dannell Ellerbe is banged up for the Ravens, so Washington should be able to keep the chains moving.
Baltimore's road form and Washington's momentum mean I'll give the points.

Pick: Washington Redskins -2 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD RGIII @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Torrey Smith @ 2.2; Pierre Garcon @ 2.4

Live NFL - Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders Sky Sports 1.20am

A bit embarrassing, but having boldly told everyone I rarely give double digit points; I'm going to do it again the very next week.

Oakland are horrible defending the pass, and even worse against the run. They have little or no pass rush (Richard Seymour is also out) and a secondary that combines a lack of talent with a bad attitude in almost equal measure. The Raiders' run D has collapsed recently and Manning will be able to mix in doses of Knowshon Moreno at will, while picking out his talented deep targets.

The Denver defense is talented and well organised and Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil are likely to wreak havoc against an offensive line that has struggled to protect Carson Palmer, who will find it difficult to develop any sort of passing game with a receiving corps that has often looked on a different page to their triggerman. The Broncos are tough against the run too, so moving the chains may be a problem for the home team tonight.

Denver should blow the doors off the Raiders here.

Pick: Denver Broncos -10 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Knowshon Moreno @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Denver DST @ 4
Spread Bet: Buy Denver Sacks @ 2.9*

*I like this bet to win me enough for Christmas, but be aware, spread betting is highly volatile!

Live NFL - New York Giants at Washington Redskins BBC Red Button 1.30am

I suppose the pick here depends largely upon whether you believe Eli Manning is really back on track after last week's performance, or whether junior's arm will become a noodle again, and if the Giants are beginning their usual run down the stretch.

The poor Washington secondary could be in for a long night, with targets like Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz on offer. The loss of Andre Brown during the game against the Packers was unfortunate, but Ahmad Bradshaw can keep the ground game rolling against a Redskins' defense that can give up yards: look for Bradshaw down near the goal line, fumbles notwithstanding.

Washington go through rookie phenom RGIII and he will challenge the Giants tonight, especially with Garcon back in the lineup, the continued development of Aldrick Robinson and the ever youthful Santana Moss - all of whom can produce the big play against another shaky secondary. Robert Griffin's ability to run will be critical as ever, as New York have shown some form against the run and Alfred Morris may find the going a little tougher than he did last time he took on the Giants where he went for 120yds.

This should be close, with both teams showing some nice form, but I'll just give the edge to the visitors.

Pick: New York Giants -3 @ 2.15

Pick: 1st Ahmad Bradshaw @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Hakeem Nicks @ 2.2; RGIII @ 2

Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys Ch4 1.20am

The Eagles. Poor, clipped, wounded sparrows. Battered, beaten and they've Nick Foles under centre.

Presumably, Dallas will try to stuff the Eagles' run game (their only remaining offense) and force Foles to try and keep pace by throwing to what's left of his receiving corps. I say keep pace, because Dallas should pour it on against one of the poorest defenses about.

The Cowboys are wildly unpredictable from week to week, but they've always struck me as 'flat track bullies' (for those of you reading this on my other blog, who aren't followers of cricket, I apologise: it means when the going is easy, they look aces) and really, if ever there was a team to show off against, it's Philadelphia.

The Eagles haven't conceded less than 28 points since October 14th. They have a -17 turnover ratio, haven't won since Moses was a boy (or week 4) and only two teams have scored fewer points. Their treatment room looks like the hospital at Balaclava and they lost DeSean Jackson during the week.

I give double digits maybe twice a year ... and this is one of those times.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -10 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Dez Bryant @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2.5; Dallas DST @ 5.5 (I actually like this bet)

Live NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens Sky Sports 9.25pm

The Ravens can eliminate the Steelers from the AFC title race tonight and given the Pittsburgh offensive troubles (I'm trying to be diplomatic) I don't think Baltimore are going to pass up the opportunity.

Charlie Batch is under centre, and if that isn't bad enough for the visitors, their O line is in pieces, so Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata may think that Christmas has come early. Batch isn't a complete bust, but he's old and there's little mobility and even less arm strength.

Last week, every tailback put the ball on the ground and the Steelers certainly won't survive that sort of profligacy. Jonathan Dwyer will likely be the lead back, but with Batch's arm a limited threat, Baltimore can load up on the run and take their chances, so it'll be a tough go on the ground. The passing game will be Heath Miller over the top, Emmanuel Sanders in the slot, Antonio Brown on a wing and a prayer and Mike Wallace on the naughty step.

All this suggests the Ravens skate home, but the Steelers will be tough on defense and there may be a kind of Alamo spirit here, as they know they are their team's best chance. Flacco is his usual infuriating self; no-one makes decisions as bad as him in positions where the better option is seemingly obvious. Pittsburgh are really tough against the pass anyway, so Flacco had better bring his A game. The key for the Ravens will be Ray Rice and the absence of Lamarr Woodley must be good news on that front; Rice operates effectively as Flacco's safety valve too, so he'll have a busy night.

The decider for me though, is the Ravens' form at home. That's where Flacco operates best and with the Steelers doubtless keying on stopping Ray Rice, Flacco has the chance to show he can deliver.

I'll give the TD.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -7 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Ray Rice @ 5.5
Pick: Anytime TD Heath Miller @ 3.1; Baltimore DST @ 4.5

Live NFL - Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears Sky Sports 6pm

A tough pick, but this really hinges on whether Seattle can get Lynch rolling; if they do, I like them to cover.

Chicago have begun giving up chunks of yardage against the run, but worryingly Marshawn Lynch had a poor game against the fins and he really needs to dominate today to keep the chains moving and to keep Cutler off the field. Rookie QB Russell Wilson has had a fine season, but his options are limited downfield and it is to the Seahawks' credit that they've got him in a system that gives him an opportunity to take shots deep; beware though, that could be a weakness today, as the Bears can bring pressure with four and force Wilson out of his comfort zone, physically and mentally.

If ever the Chicago public needed confirmation that Cutler is their best option to make plays behind that offensive line, then the last couple of weeks should have provided it. However, the Bears lost guards Chris Spencer and Lance Louis last week and Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin will be optimistic that they can get after Cutler. Deeper, Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner are appealing their PED suspensions, and with Forte out, or limited, Cutler's options are limited and given the quality of the Seahawks' corners, even a talent like Brandon Marshall will have to work hard to find room; and the Bears are pretty one-dimensional out wide.

With everyone smashing into the home team, I'll oppose the herd and put my faith in Lynch dialling it up to 'beast mode' and TAKE (sorry) the points in what may be a low scoring affair.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks +3 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Golden Tate @ 2.65; Chicago DST @ 3.75

Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons Sky Sports 1.20am

I'm looking forward to what could be an ill-tempered shoot out in the Georgia Dome. There's the must-win Saints against the avenging Falcons - and just for a little added piquancy, the Saints' bus was egged by staff at the Atlanta airport!

Atlanta have a fearsome passing offense and that can't be good news for a Saints defense that ranks 30th against the pass. New Orleans also struggle against the run, but the Falcons have failed to get their ground game going; this could be the opportunity though, for Jacquizz Rodgers to finally wrest the lead back mantle from the cumbersome Michael Turner - although Turner still gets the ball close in, if you're looking at the TD market. Rodgers has begun to catch out of the backfield too, but while all this might suggest there's a significant Atlanta ground attack, the truth is, it's still not that effective.

Rather, it is Matt Ryan to Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez that makes the home team so potent on offense. They murdered the Saints in their last meeting, and although there have been signs of life from the New Orleans' secondary, they are still weak. There's no Saints' pass rush to really worry Ryan, so he'll have time to find his targets.

Drew Brees has a similar array of talent to throw to; Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Jimmy Graham are every bit as dangerous as the Falcons receivers and, although Atlanta have allowed only two multiple TD games all season (ranking a very respectable 13th in ypg) their ability to control wideouts is undermined by Jimmy Graham who matches up well over the middle - Atlanta may have Stephen Nicholas and Sean Weatherspoon back, and they'll need them.

New Orleans have Darren Sproles back and that adds to the Saints' backfield, because he brings variation catching the ball. Atlanta have beefed up their run defense and it's worth noting their success against the explosive Doug Martin last week, but it is crucial New Orleans get something going on the ground.

Some notes: Since 2008, the Falcons are 31-7 record at home, but three of those losses are to the Saints. Atlanta haven't beaten New Orleans in the Georgia Dome since 2008.

The money has come for the visitors (largely, I suspect, on the basis of those stats) but like every shoot out in football, what you have to decide is who is going to make that rare defensive stop, and Atlanta looks the most likely tonight.

I'll give the points.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9; Julio Jones @ 9.5
Pick: Anytime TD Atlanta DST @ 4.5

Live NFL - Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles BBC Red Button 1.40am

Great, a disastrous weekend of football betting is topped off with this rotten game!

Cam Newton is having a very tough (and unpredictable) season, while the Eagles have Nick Foles under centre again, behind an O line that is falling apart. Foles would usually look to hand it off to LeSean McCoy, but he's also out with a concussion.

The Panthers should be able to attack the Eagles' secondary, which is poor: Philadelphia don't have much of a pass rush, so there shouldn't be much pressure: look for Steve Smith to score. If Carolina can mix Jonathan Stewart into the run game, along with Newton (RGIII gashed the Eagles) they should come out on top, but decision making on and off the field has been a problem for Carolina this season and the results have followed.

A horrible game to pick, but I'll take my final pennies and give a field goal.

Pick: Carolina Panthers -3 @ 1.9

Pick: 1st TD Cam Newton @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.3

Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at New York Giants 1.30am Ch4

Since 2007, the Packers are 19-5 against the spread as underdogs: I'm not a great fan of this kind of stat, but in this case it sums up my feelings about this game.

The Giants have looked poor of late and Manning has been out of sync with the rest of his offense. The Packers' secondary is soft, but as an entire stop unit, they operate pretty efficiently. Even missing Clay Matthews they can mount a decent pass rush and the Giants have problems along the offensive line. Bradshaw is banged up: look for Andre Brown to get touches.

The Packers' run game isn't too pretty either, but Rodgers should be able to get after a middling secondary and I expect him and his receivers to put up numbers: look for Randall Cobb.

I'll take the points.

Pick: Green Bay Packers +2 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Randall Cobb @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Andre Brown @ 2.38

Live NFL San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints Sky Sports 9.30pm

I said at the beginning of the season that I thought the Saints would be OK, despite 'Bountygate' - only for New Orleans to look completely lost. Luckily, they seem to have put that behind them now and are building up a head of steam that could see them go above .500 with a win today.

Colin Kaepernick was outstanding last week; with a straightforward gameplan, he executed and the 49ers offense looked great. The Saints defense will find it difficult tonight, with an offense with power on the ground and targets deep that can get plenty of separation against guys like Patrick Robinson and Jabari Greer.

New Orleans need to pressure Kaepernick, but they don't have much of a pass rush. Frank gore will be going up against Jonathan Vilma, Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne - a linebacking corps that is improving (and getting fit) recently and this reflects the general improvement of the Saints on defense.

Drew Brees and his offense are beginning to look like who they ought to be, and although San Francisco are one of the toughest stop units around, if they have a weakness, it is vertically. I suspect what has been a promising New Orleans run game will be choked off, but deeper, Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham and Lance Moore could prosper.

The 49ers are shifting time zones off a short week against a powerful offense that has momentum. It should be a great game, but I'll take the points.

Pick: New Orleans Saints +2 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Michael Crabtree @ 2.1

Live NFL - Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears - Sky Sports 6pm

Cutler is back (hands up who thought that would be the Bears' best news of the season!) but there's little doubt that behind a horrible offensive line, Jay cobbles together an attack that at least threatens to score where others can't; Jason Campbell was unlucky to come up against the 49ers, but he looked awful and part of the reason was the constant pressure he was under.

It's not going to be a stroll for Cutler with Jared Allen and Brian Robison coming after him, but he should be able to get the ball to Brandon Marshall rather more often, and Marshall matches up nicely this week with his size advantage. Of course, Matt Forte is critical to the offense and he'll see the rock a lot, but Chicago need to get him catching out of the backfield; the Vikes' linebackers are OK in run D but are less good in coverage.

The Minnesota offense is Adrian Peterson. Christian Ponder hasn't been good, and with Percy Harvin still out, the passing game is on the downward curve. The visitors will need to vary the point of attack, and Kyle Rudolph has begun to emerge as a threat, so look for him catching, particularly as that means Minnesota don't need to try and beat the tough Chicago corners. Julius Peppers and his buddies will be keen to show they are as advertised after last week, but note that much of San Francisco's success was a result of the Bears stacking the box against the run and they'll have to do the same today with 'All Day' on duty, so Ponder will have chances.

It's really about AP; if he gets going, the Vikings can prosper and control the tempo of the game. I suspect they'll succeed, so I'll take the points.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings +6 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Adrian Peterson @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Forte @ 2; Kyle Rudolph @ 2.62

Live NFL - New England Patriots at New York Jets - Sky Sports 1.20am

The Patriots have the sort of balanced offense I like to see in teams I bet on; their success on the ground complements nicely Brady's talent in hitting a gifted receiving corps. Losing Gronkowski is a blow (and although Hernandez is back, he's a different animal to the Gronk) but if anyone can re-jig an offense, it's Belichik. The Jets are solid against the pass, but soft against the run and it's likely that the familiar pattern of softening up a defense on the ground, before attacking them through the air, will be the order of the day.

Mark Sanchez must be one of the most put-upon QBs in the league, but he's shown some backbone to turn in some decent performances. If there was ever a game where he had the opportunity to put up numbers, it's today; New England's secondary is dire and even the addition of Aqib Talib doesn't address the fundamental shortcomings of a defense ranked 30th against the pass. 

Jeremy Kerley, Chaz Schilens and Dustin Keller will get opportunities, but it's a question of whether they can keep moving the chains with the run too.  Shonn Greene is a decent back and the Pats are by no means a shutdown run D, so it'll be interesting to see how the Jets balance their play calling; what is critical is that they execute, because they'll need to be at full throttle.

With new England injured and off a short week, I'm tempted by the Jets, but I still have the visitors by a TD.

Pick: New England Patriots -6.5 @1.83

Pick: 1st TD  Wes Welker @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Shonn Greene @ 2.25; Jeremy Kerley @ 2.65

Live NFL - Thanksgiving Games

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions - Sky Sports 5.30pm

Last week the Texans got it going through the air, but I expect them to revert to type today and key on Arian Foster who can take advantage of the Lions' defense's tendency to over-pursue. The Jags loaded up the box last week and limited Foster nicely, and the Detroit run defense has had its moments, but Schaub's ability to air it out and a defensive inconsistency against the run means that Houston should be able to move the chains.

The Detroit inconsistency on D is reflected on the offense; Stafford has had a patchy season and was poor last week. That spread to the rest of the offense and culminated with Titus Young having a hissy fit on the sidelines which sees him benched today. The Texans were lit up by Chad Henne last week, which is not a good sign, but J.J. Watt is playing out of his mind (and the Pack got to Stafford last week without Clay Matthews) and I'm looking for a rebound performance this week.

I'll give the points.

Pick: Houston Texans -3 @ 1.86

Pick: 1st TD Arian Foster @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Owen Daniels @ 2.1

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys - Sky Sports 9.30pm

Shanny and RBs: the guy is a genius. If Washington get Alfred Morris rolling tonight, Dallas could be in trouble, and with the Cowboys' D line a little nicked up, the home team could struggle to put together a scheme that limits Morris and Robert Griffin III on the ground. RG3 can also look to exploit a Dallas secondary that has occasionally missed, particularly corner Morris Claiborne. How the Redskins cope with the Dallas pass rush will be critical, but RG3's talent out of the pocket will be a powerful advantage.

Tony Romo in November: 21 and 3. Ouch. Washington have been vulnerable deep, but over the last three games they've been much better. The intriguing aspect here will be whether Romo will be hobbled by the loss of key players on the Dallas O line; the Cowboys are down to their third string centre and Left Tackle Tyron Smith is injured. Dallas have given up sacks of late and if the away team can force them into 3rd and long situations, then Jim Haslett can dial up blitz packages to force Romo into mistakes. The Dallas run game is still a mess, so it will be up to Romo to win it; look for the Cowboys' wideouts to score therefore.

It's always difficult capping your own team, but I think the Redskins can keep this close, so I'll take the points.

Pick: Washington Redskins +3.5 @ 1.85

Pick: 1st TD Robert Griffin III @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Miles Austin @ 2

Last night's pick ...

As a couple of people have noticed, I really stepped it up last night by picking a baseball team to beat the Bears!

It had been a long day and I was rushing a preview out before collapsing into bed - sorry 'bout that. Hopefully, those of you foolhardy enough to follow my tips figured it out.

Also, I've had a question about the italicised picks; they are simply if you fancy a bit of in-game interest and can be happily ignored, the primary pick is always the one against the spread.

Thanks.

Live NFL - Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers BBC Red Button 1.30am

Neither starting QB goes tonight and that seems to swing the game the home team's way. Campbell has a decent arm, but a laborious delivery because he spends too much time making decisions and he'll do it tonight against an aggressive D and behind a poor O line.

As it is, Chicago will try to run the ball to limit his throwing/decision making, but the 49ers are a tough defense to run on and it may be a rough night under centre. Forte isn't really a smashmouth runner and may find the going tough too.

I like Colin Kaepernick and if he were more polished, I'd take him every day over Alex Smith (so much so I've stashed him in a number of keeper leagues!) as it is I think Harbaugh will turn Kaepernick into a fine QB and it may be that tonight we'll see some of that potential: h's certainly more mobile than Campbell.

San Francisco will also run the ball all game, for all the same reasons, but I suspect Kaepernick will take some looks downfield which will keep the Bears' defense on its toes. Gore is a physical runner and Kendall is a nice change up and although the Bears are a difficult team to run on, they did creak last game.

I'll give the points.

Pick: San Francisco Giants -3.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Colin Kaepernick @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Forte @ 2.4

Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Ch4 1.30am

I usually love these situations; the line crashes in on the news that a team's #1 QB is out and the team in question is cracking value. Sure enough, this line has moved 7+ points with Roethlisberger on the sidelines, but the fly in the ointment is Leftwich: he stinks.

Hopefully, the Steelers will resist the temptation to go after the ropey Ravens' secondary and pound the rock with the returning Mendenhall and then lean on their defense to stifle a Baltimore team that has been poor on the road.

I'll still play the situation, but if you must get involved, keep stakes small.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Torrey Smith @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Heath Miller @ 2.7

Live NFL - Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots Sky Sports 9.30pm

I like Andrew Luck a lot and when you consider the absentees for the New England defense (Dont’a Hightower, Brandon Spikes, Patrick Chung and Steve Gregory are out/injured) it may be that this face-off of the present and the future QB superstars may be closer than people think.

New England will put up points because they have the talent to score on anyone (note that the Colts may have lost both starting corners) but with the return of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney for the Colts, I'm going to take the points in what should be a high scoring game.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts +9.5 @ 2

Pick: Over 53.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Reggie Wayne @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Lloyd @ 2.4

Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Sky Sports 6pm

Green Bay have injury problems on the OL and still haven't all their offensive weapons fit after the bye week, but if they keep Rodgers upright he'll be able to attack a Lions' secondary that is similarly missing bodies all over the place and playing poorly. Detroit have given up yards on the ground too recently, and if Green Bay can find any sort of running game, they can tame the Lions - yuk it up, kids.

The Pack also have key elements out on D (specifically Clay Matthews) and Tramon Williams should've been having megatron sized nightmares all week. Stafford has struggled this season, but has run into a little form and he has the weapons downfield to attack a Green Bay D that is giving up chunks of yardage through the air: look for talented rookie Titus Young, who is becoming a real threat with teams concentrating on Calvin Johnson. Stafford has Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell to help him out on the ground, so the home team has the offensive wherewithal.

However, I suspect Detroit could be playing from behind on this one and although they have strength on the offensive side, Stafford slinging it against a D that keeps making big plays, despite its limitations, is likely to be too big an ask.

I'll give the points.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -3 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Randall Cobb @  10
Pick: Anytime TD Titus Young @ 2.5

Live NFL - Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Sky Sports 1.25am

Miami are sliding, but Buffalo might just offer them a chance to arrest the skid, primarily because the Bills can't defend the run; they're banged up and performing poorly as a front seven. Reggie Bush has put numbers up against this D in the past and (along with Daniel Thomas) should do so again tonight. Bush was benched last week for a fumble, so hopefully he'll have something to prove. There's not much pass rush to worry about, so if the ground game dominates sufficiently, Ryan Tannehill can take some shots against a poor, inexperienced secondary.

Buffalo are missing Fred Jackson, and it could be a big miss. C J Spiller will feature and has some juice and although Miami's numbers against the run on the season are excellent, they've given up yards recently. Ryan Fitzpatrick is too unpredictable for my tastes; he is a swashbuckler whose swash often buckles and it can get ugly quickly. The fins haven't a terrifying pass rush, but the Bills' O line does give up sacks, however Miami are beatable deep.

This game depends upon who gets the run going and I'll look for Miami's quick, aggressive defense to assert itself.

Pick: Miami Dolphins @ 2.25

Pick: 1st TD Brian Hartline @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Reggie bush @ 2

Live NFL - Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers BBC Red Button 1.30am

It's been one of those weeks and it would be nice if Ben and the boys execute their gameplan tonight without any dramas.

There's no element in this game, save perhaps for the Chiefs' run game, where Kansas doesn't look over-matched. Added to which, Romeo Crennel is floating at the top of the bowl and has handed over the defensive co-ordinator role in desperation. Cassel is a functional quarterback (rather him under centre than Brady Quinn) but his options were limited enough without facing a Steelers' D on national TV that is beginning to form up nicely. Kansas have been outscored 61-6 in the first quarter this season and they will struggle to put points up tonight too.

As long as the home team stick to the usual RBBC/easy, short passing game to move the chains and don't get too greedy, they should see off tonight's opposition at a jog. I hate giving double digits (particularly on MNF) but the Chiefs really are that bad.

Pick: Pittsburgh -12.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st Quarter Spread Pittsburgh -3 @ 1.91 (Vic)

Pick: 1st TD Isaac Redman @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Heath Miller @ 2.1

Live NFL - Houston Texans at Chicago Bears Ch4 1.20am

A fascinating matchup to close out the night.

Two really tough defenses will test offenses that aren't known for their innovative, devil-may-care approach.

Matt Schaub is an efficient, error free game manager and he'll need to be patient tonight as the Bears are well organised deep and aggressive up front: of particular concern is the right side of the offensive line, where Idonije, McClellin and Melton could cause all sorts of problems. The Texans will need to lean on Arian Foster, but Chicago are tough against the run too and with a talented secondary and a dearth of a deep threat, if Foster doesn't dominate, the Texans could struggle to move the ball.

Frankly, the same is true of the Bears: Matt Forte must get rolling against a stout run D to take the pressure off Cutler, who'll hope his protection has a good day against a ferocious pass rush led by J J Watt. With Cushing missing, Forte may find some room and Cutler will still look for (a doubtless double teamed) Brandon Marshall downfield.

One of these offenses will need to step up and show form that has been lacking so far and I think Chicago just shade it on the basis of 'the team most likely'.

Pick: Chicago Bears -1 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Matt Forte @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Houston Defense @ 5.5

Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles Sky Sports 9.25pm

Great, a choker followed by a game between maybe the two most unpredictable teams in football!

I honestly couldn't pick a team to cover with these two, so I'm going to post my one 'No bet' of the year ATS.

Instead, head to SJ and back Over 5 sacks in the game for a small interest; the Eagles don't have an O line and DeMarcus Ware and his buddies must be licking their lips.

Pick: Over 5 sacks @ 2

Live NFL - Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Sky Sports 6pm

Those of you sitting in your second homes and ski lodges, financed by my baseball and football picks, will scarcely need reminding that I rarely make a losing selection, and even if I do, I'm not one of those people who curses his luck or trots out some lame excuse ... but the Eagles really stank it up against the Saints last week and should've won!

My view of the Saints' defensive side of the ball is the same: they're awful. If Vick and his O line hadn't completely collapsed (Andy Reid sucked too, incidentally) New Orleans' season would be done. As it is, they won't be able to get to Matt Ryan with such ease today (he has better protection and a sharper release) and Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez should make hay. The Falcons can change it up with Michael Turner who is putting up solid, if unspectacular numbers in his footballing dotage.

The New Orleans Saints do have a fine offense of course, and last week saw them begin to find real rhythm. Jimmy Graham is getting fit, and Brees was ruthless over the middle against the hapless Eagles and Atlanta have given up receiving yards this season (if not TDs) so expect the TE to find the endzone. With Darren Sproles probably out, it's RBBC in the backfield - look for Ivory close in.

The defenses look like the tiebreaker here and so the preference must be for the visitors.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons -1 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Chris Ivory @ 3.25

Live NFL - Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars Sky Sports 1.20am

Andrew Luck is some talent; his maturity and vision are impressive enough, but when you consider he's a rookie and the number one draft pick, then you realise the Colts have something special. That talent is reflected in the Indy offense, which is really coming together and I would look for Wayne, Avery, Hilton and Dwayne Allen to do well against a Jags' D that ranks poorly in every defensive stat. Vick Ballard is also developing nicely and with Donald Brown still carrying injuries, Ballard can become the dominant force in the backfield.

The Jags beat the Colts earlier this season, but Jones-Drew put up 177 yards and a TD in that game, and he's out tonight. The Indianapolis defense has made progress as well as the season has gone on. That said, Indy are missing two starting corners and Gabbert is by no means hopeless - similarly, Rashad Jennings is useful running and catching out of the backfield.

However, the Colts have the momentum and emotions are still running high over Chuck Pagano and they should have too much for the home team tonight.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3 @ 1.83

Pick: 1st TD Reggie Wayne @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Vick Ballard @ 2

Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints BBC Red Button 1.30am

I didn't think that losing their coach would have a significant effect on the Saints, but it would seem that, if it's not that, a wheel has come off somewhere.

The major problem is the New Orleans' defense: it's horrible. Their pass rush isn't getting home and their secondary is poor (the Saints have given up 300 yards to opposing QBs in all but one game this season) and to make matters worse, they're now coping with injuries.

Michael Vick is behind a creaking offensive line that has seen the Eagles' coaches alter their QB's gameplan somewhat, with a much quicker release and shorter passes designed to avoid the sacks and turnovers that were burning them. That said, tonight should see some shots deep to guys like Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. LeSean McCoy should be able to get rolling against a weak run D and as my loyal follower knows, I like a balanced offense.

Drew Brees will like the look of this matchup, as the Eagles have their own problems on defense: so much so a new defensive co-ordinator has come in. The difference seemed to be initially a lot more blitzing, but if you send everyone against Brees, he'll murder you and I expect Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham to have big games as the Philadelphia corners are ponderous and their safeties struggle in coverage. There's less balance here with Sproles out and Pierre Thomas/Mark Ingram less explosive options.

This could be a game with a lot of points with neither stop unit showing much form; in terms of the spread, although they're horribly unreliable, I'll favour the visitors.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +3 @ 1.83
Pick: Over 51.5 @ 1.91
 
Pick: 1st TD Michael Vick @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD Marques Colston @ 2

Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons Ch4 1.30am

Atlanta are a solid team: Dallas are not.

Usually, the team that wins the turnover battle, wins the game. With this in mind, consider the fact that Romo has thrown thirteen picks this season, whereas the Falcons as a team have turned the ball over just seven times. Romo tends to be wildly unpredictable and tonight he won't have a run game to fall back on (DeMarco Murray is out and Felix Jones is banged up) and he'll be behind an O line that has had problems keeping him protected.

Atlanta can be beaten deep, and Romo has decent options downfield, but he'll turn the ball over to an offense that can be ruthlessly efficient.

Matt Ryan has been solid this season and if he's given any time, he can look at targets like Roddy White, Julio Jones and the ageless Tony G. Dallas corners Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr are talented, but they'll need to be on their game. Of course, Ryan has to stay clean, and the Falcons O line will have their hands full with the Dallas' front seven in general and DeMarcus Ware in particular. It'll be interesting to see how Michael Turner figures: he'll certainly get touches close in, but this looks like it'll be a shoot out at the Georgia Dome.

I'll give the points.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons -4.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Julio Jones @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Miles Austin @ 2.4

Live NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants Sky Sports 9.25pm

Go with the emotion of the Giants playing at home for the victims of hurricane Sandy.

Seriously.

Pick: New York Giants -3.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Heath Miller @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Hakeem Nicks @ 2.1

Live NFL - Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins Sky Sports 6pm

Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III face off - what's not to like?

This will come down to who can stifle the respective wunderkinds, because each is not merely the most important part of their team's offense in a positional sense (they're the QBs fer chrissakes!) they haven't anyone else to carry the team: Newton hasn't been as sharp this season and so the Panthers have been stymied.

Luckily for Carolina, they're going up against a Washington D that is pretty much hopeless against the pass and middling against the run. Steve Smith is due a TD and worth looking at in the TD market as Newton has begun to show flashes of form recently and the offense in general seems more cohesive - bear in mind too, that the Panthers have run Chicago and Atlanta close on the road and had five losses by a single score.

RGIII has been as advertised, and then some, but rather like their offense, the Carolina' D has made some strides and while it's not a shutdown unit, it has a decent pass rush, can defend the run and is capable of bottling up Griffin.

The Washington receiving corps doesn't inspire at the best of times, but they've started dropping the ball too, so a good deal could rest on Alfred Morris and the run game and he'll see the rock a lot. The Panthers are a little nicked up at LB, so Morris may be in for a big game, but I don't think it'll be enough to cover.

I'll take the points.

Pick: Carolina Panthers +3 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD RGIII @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.4

Live NFL - Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers Sky Sports 12.25am

These are two teams with critical flaws that make picking this game a real challenge.

Both teams have QBs that have problems. Matt Cassel is too often a rabbit in the headlights and makes bad decisions, really bad. Cassel has an astonishing 16 turnovers on the season. I prefer him to Brady Quinn though, as Cassel can at least find the open receiver.

Philip Rivers is broken. For a couple of seasons he has regressed badly and there seems little doubt he is coping with some kind of physical problem. Rivers is coming off two bad games and isn't throwing with anything like the required zip, and even when he does, his receivers are putting it on the deck.

The Chiefs' most potent weapon, Jamaal Charles, got 8 touches last week, EIGHT. Romeo Crennel/Brian Daboll are part of the problem in Kansas and unless they give Charles the rock tonight, the Chiefs will struggle mightily - if Trent Richardson can gash the Chargers' run D, then surely JC can.

San Diego need to feed Ryan Mathews, but he has fumbling problems that have seen him benched already this season. Luckily, the Kansas defense is flat out awful. Through the air or on the ground, they can't stop a thing, so Gates and Mathews in particular should do OK: it's worth bearing in mind in the TD market that this is a team that uses the pass to score so look for Malcom Floyd, and Robert Meachem in the endzone.

Hopefully, the message is clear: these teams are pigs and the game is best watched.

In this situation though, I'll take the points.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +9 @ 1.8
 
Pick: 1st TD Antonio Gates @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Malcolm Floyd @ 2

Live NFL - New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys Sky Sports 8.25pm

The Giants are strong on the road ATS (10-3-1 since 2011) and I'll take them to cover tonight.

Manning went 26 of 40 for 337, but looked slightly out of sync last week and Coughlin needs to get Bradshaw rolling, particularly catching out of the backfield now that the Cowboys have lost Sean Lee. Cruz is a beast and can prosper in this matchup where he's likely to draw Scandrick operating in the slot; look for the usual big play attempt with Cruz on the end.

Unfortunately for Dallas, they're badly depleted in the run game, because Washington ran all over the Giants last week: Phil Costa's absence won't help and the net result is that the Cowboys will need to rely on Romo's arm and he has struggled to produce consistently this season - largely because of continuing protection problems. The Giants will send four to attack the soft Dallas interior linemen and I suspect it may be a long day under centre for Tony.

Pick: New York Giants -2 @ 1.95
 
Pick: 1st TD Victor Cruz @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Dez Bryant @ 2.2; NY Giants Defense @ 6.5

Live NFL - St Louis Rams at New England Patriots Sky Sports 5pm

The Patriots are still misfiring a little on offense, but judging by the Rams' pass rush last week Tom Brady will have time to look downfield - that's a dangerous luxury to afford what is still a capable side like New England. Aaron Hernandez is out, so they'll need Brandon Lloyd to find some form, but the Pats have enough weapons (and decent balance on the ground) to put up points.

The Rams are no mugs and, were it not for their problems in the redzone, they might be in a very different place in the standings going into this game. Their problems up front continue however, and even with the already poor Pats' secondary banged up, there's no guarantee St Louis will have enough to keep this within a TD.

Pick: New England Patriots -7 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Wes Welker @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Lloyd @ 3

Live NFL - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings Sky Sports 1.25am

AP is the beating heart of the Viking offense and with the Bucs tough against the run, the home team may have to rely a little more on Christian Ponder's arm; but Ponder has turned the ball over seven times in the last three games and the Vikes clearly suffer when he has to throw. Set against this is a ponderous Bucs' secondary, still without the suspended Aqib Talib. If Ponder is to emerge, it must be tonight and I'm expecting to see Percy Harvin, Jerome Simpson and Kyle Rudolph get more involved.

Josh Freeman had a big game last week, but it was against a Saints' defense giving up the third most yards per game through the air and the Vikings have a strong enough pass rush in Jared Allen, Brian Robison and Kevin Williams to get after Freeman tonight. I like the balance of Doug Martin on the ground and Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams out wide, but again, Minnesota are tough against the run and although they can give up the big play, Antoine Winfield is playing well and the secondary in general has stepped up.

I'll give the points.
 
Pick: Minnesota Vikings -5.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Percy Harvin @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Vincent Jackson @ 2.1

Live MLB - Game 2 World Series Detroit Tigers @ SF Giants ESPN 1am

1.92/10.50; 1.53/2.55 WHIP/ERA Madison Bumgarner; Doug Fister L3. Tigers hitting lefties at .307 L5 and Giants just hitting.

I'd prefer it without Dan Iassogna behind home, but this goes Over.

Pick: Over 7 @ 2.00

Live MLB - Game 1 World Series Detroit Tigers @ SF Giants ESPN 1am

Verlander has been brutal this season and even more so in the post-season, which is a change of pace for him as he traditionally fell away at this time of year. Barry Zito was aces last time out, but isn't in the same league as the Tigers' hurler tonight and he'll need to reproduce that form to get close.

However, Detroit have been sitting around the clubhouse for a week drinking beers and eating hot wings, with the back end of the bullpen not having thrown in quite a while longer. Meanwhile, San Francisco have hauled themselves back from the brink, largely because of the effect of playing at AT&T Park in front of their own fans.

With the downtime and this kind of momentum the Giants must be the value - it'll be a tough go, but I'll take the price on the home dog to upset Verlander (as if dating Kate Upton weren't enough!)
 
Pick: San Francisco Giants @ 2.55

NFL - Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens 1.30am Sky Sports

Double digit spreads are practically always an automatic play on the dog, especially on national television, but I can't roll with the Browns tonight.

Cleveland don't have a pass rush likely to bother Flacco much and with Joe Haden absent, the Browns are soft against the pass, because Buster Skrine and Dimitri Patterson aren't getting it done. Baltimore will attack that weak secondary with three wide sets (Torrey Smith's speed, even as #3 receiver, can exploit the inevitable mismatches) and shouldn't have any problem moving the ball. Ray Rice may run amok against a run defense that ranks 22nd, as long as Cam Cameron gives him the rock.

On offense the Browns are going to struggle with Brandon Weeden throwing the ball; he's liable to be inaccurate and his receivers aren't the most talented bunch, even if they manage to catch the ball (Greg Little has been killing me in fantasy). On the ground, the excellent Trent Richardson will have to run against a Ravens' front that ranks 5th; he'll be more effective catching out of the backfield, but it'll be a tough game for him either way.

I'll reluctantly give the points in what may be a blowout.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -11.5 @ 1.95

Pick: Cleveland Trios Sell @ 340 (Sporting Index)
Pick: 1st TD Torrey Smith @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jacoby Jones @ 2.8

NFL - Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks BBC Red Button 1.30am

This should be a tough go for the Pack; the Seahawks have a solid defense, CenturyLink Field is a difficult place to go and Green Bay's offense has yet to come to life.

Seattle have an excellent secondary with pace and size at the corners. Up front, Chris Clemons and Red Bryant will cause all sorts of problems for a Packers O line that has struggled to protect Rodgers or open up any sort of run game. This means Green Bay will have to attack those corners and so far the Packers' talented receiving corps have not run their routes well and put the ball on the floor too often.

If the Packers face a challenge on offense, the same can be said for the home team. The options deep aren't great and there's no sign of the coaches looking to Russell Wilson to throw, so it's critical that they keep him out of third and long situations: they rely instead on Marshawn Lynch to smash it up the middle.

Green Bay didn't stop the run effectively in week one but showed some progress against Chicago, however Lynch will be a challenge. Seattle struggle in pass protection and one aspect of Green Bay's defense that has showed signs of life is the pass rush and I anticipate they'll get after Wilson - the Pack certainly won't want their secondary tested.

This is a difficult pick and the price isn't great. The Seahawks' win against Dallas shifted the line a couple of points to a field goal, but 1.8+ is skinny. That said, I can't invest in the Seattle offense just yet and the greater scope for improvement rests with the visitors who should win.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -3 @ 1.87
Pick: Buy Green Bay Sacks @ 3.1

Pick: 1st TD Jermichael Finley @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Jermichael Finley @ 2.20

NFL - New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens Ch4 1.30am

New England have re-discovered defense; they're tough against the run and the pass, showing second versus the run (2.3 YPC) and third against the pass (5.7 YPA).

The former is tough on the Ravens, who may want to take the ball out of Joe Flacco's hands after last week's performance on his way to a 66.8 passer rating. Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower can bring pressure and with the state of the Raven's O line, it could be a long night for Flacco. Ray Rice will anchor the offense and if he doesn't dominate, Baltimore will struggle.

Tom Brady had a tough time last week, but the Cards are rolling and losing Hernandez will have unbalanced the game plan. Nobody is better at re-gathering their team than Belichick and Brady and I expect the Pats to be sharp on offense again. If the Eagles can test Baltimore through the air, then New England certainly can and with no Suggs to slow Brady and a secondary that has problems all over the field, the assorted Patriot deep targets should prosper.

I'll take the points.

Pick: New England Patriots +3 @ 1.91 (Corals)

Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Wes Welker @ 2.8

NFL - Houston Texans at Denver Broncos Sky Sports 9.15pm

I'm looking forward to this game; Houston rely on a low-risk, rush-heavy offense, but Denver have been tough on the run (119 rushing yards at a 2.8 YPC) and that means Schaub will have to look for Andre Johnson more downfield, but beyond Johnson, the pickings are slim. Add in the first real test for Houston's offensive front (Schaub is notoriously skittish in the pocket) and a lot of people's fancy to go all the way will be severely tested at Mile High - always a difficult place to go.

Denver, or rather Peyton Manning, started dreadfully last week, and the offense still looks like it needs fine tuning. That's not good news against a Texans' defense that is well organised and tough. If Peyton struggled against the Hawks, Houston may stymie him.

I'll give the points.

Pick: Houston Texans -1.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Andre Johnson @ 8.0
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Decker @ 2.4

NFL - New York Jets at Miami Dolphins Sky Sports 6pm

It might be a little early to be looking at Tebow, but Sanchez had better get his chit together. After starting at a gallop, the offense disappeared last week and Sanchez was horrible, only managing to pad his stats in garbage time.

The books aren't too sure here; the line started out as far as Jets -5, closed up to -1 and has drifted back to -2, but really, if the Jets have any ambition, they should put the Fins away today.

Sanchez is likely to need to throw because Miami have closed down the run nicely and Shonn Greene looks pedestrian. Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill should get some looks today and I fancy one of them to have a big game, particularly with Keller out. Outside of Cameron Wake, there isn't a really threatening pass rush from Miami, so last week's protection issues shouldn't arise.

Ryan Tannehill is as advertised: he's a game manager who needs to keep it error free and give his team a chance. Brian Hartline looks like he's emerging as Tannehill's favourite target and he'll get a real test today against the formidable Jets' secondary, but he's a big guy with good hands and will be a handful.

Reggie Bush will be the foundation of the home O, and has shown good form in the past against the visitors - he may be maturing into the player he was supposed to be, but the Jets can concentrate on him, confident that Revis (who looks like he'll play) and his buddies can handle the rest.

Miami really shouldn't have enough on either side of the ball, but I'm backing one of the most inconsistent QBs in the game.

Pick: NY Jets -2 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Stephen Hill @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Santonio Holmes @ 2.10

NFL - New York Giants at Carolina Panthers Sky Sports 1am

I hate capping the Giants, particularly in the first month of the season. Last week was a good example; they started like a junior flag football team and ended like unstoppable world champions.

Cons? Short week, a tough Carolina on the road, Bradshaw and Nicks out, problems at tackle that may expose their QB and a secondary that wasn't too hot to start with, has missing bodies. Pros? Cruz can dominate, Andre Brown may be up to the job against a poor home run D and Manning broke all sorts of records after starting badly last week.

Carolina need to attack that Giants' secondary, but Cam Newton and the ground game did some damage last week, so it'll be a significant chance of approach. They can still pound the rock as New York aren't a brick wall up front (although Keith Rivers is back to help) but they need to feed Steve Smith; they surely will.

Sorting through that lot, it has to be Carolina.

Pick: Carolina Panthers -3 @ 2.00

Pick: 1st TD Steve Smith @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.20

NFL - Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers Ch4 1.30am

The 49ers are too tough against the run, too quick up front on D and Alex Smith (a player I've always run down) is playing smart, effective, error-free football.

Detroit's O line is suspect and their secondary is decimated (Chris Houston, Louis Delmas and Dwight Bentley are all out) so Megatron will have to have an all-time game for the Lions to cover.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -7 @ 2.00

Pick: 1st TD SF Defense @ 26
Pick: Anytime TD Vernon Davis @ 2.00

NFL - Washington Redskins at St Louis Rams Sky Sports 9.15pm

Is RG3 the real deal? Well, he may get tested rather more seriously tonight as the Rams can at least mount a pass rush and, although the Redskins O line played well last week, it isn't a bunch to invest in blindly. The St Louis defense has capable players deep too and so Griffin will be throwing against a much better secondary - it'll be a fascinating battle. Michael Brockers will be out or limited and Alfred Morris should benefit as the Rams struggled against Kevin Smith last week. If the Redskins establish the run, watch out.

The Rams will also face an offensive challenge against a Washington stop unit that shows real promise. Unfortunately, Bradford is seated behind an O line that has personnel missing and has been weak against the pass rush, so he's likely to be on his toes. Steven Jackson offers some respite, but again, the 'Skins are strong at LB. Bradford dinkin' an' dunkin' ain't gonna feed the baby.

Pick: Washington Redskins -3.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD RG3 @ 15 (PP)
Pick: Anytime TD Danny Amendola @ 2.5

NFL - New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers Sky Sports 6pm

Difficult to know which of these teams, who both misfired badly in Week 1, will have ironed out some of the kinks.

Both teams need to get their ground game going; Cam Newton and DeAngelo Williams did nothing last week and the returning Jonathan Stewart had better signal a shift back to what got it done last year, as the Panthers just don't have the offensive line to rely on Newton's arm alone and they need to burn the clock against an offense as potent as New Orleans'. That said, not only did the Bucs put the QB under pressure all day, the Carolina front didn't do their runners any favours.

Similarly, the Saints need to get their run game rolling in order to give Drew Brees the room to operate - the Carolina defense struggled to contain the Tampa running game, so there's a flicker of hope.

The Saints traditionally don't travel well, and their secondary is an injury riddled shambles, so Steve Smith (if he goes) should prosper. Of course, the New Orleans D is faced with the same type of QB as last week and that either means they've been to school on the gameplan, or they'll be vulnerable again.

I'm going to take the points.

Pick: Carolina Panthers +3 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Darren Sproles @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.00

NFL - San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers Sky Sports 9.30pm

The Pack were sketchy on defense last year and in the off-season they drafted Nick Perry in the first round to energise the pass rush, but they still look soft at the corners. The 49ers had problems with getting the passing game rolling and went out and got receivers; my reservation here is that I'm not sure I want Alex Smith passing more!

The one thing you can guarantee is that Green Bay will be strong on offense and the clash between the Rodgers-led O and the vaunted San Francisco D is mouthwatering. I wonder if we're going to see the replacement refs really tested in this one? If Aaron Rodgers calls it, it's going to be a brave ref who doesn't oblige with a late flag or two.

However, as long as the Green Bay O line keeps him upright, I can't resist Rodgers giving up less than a TD at home.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -5.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jermichael Finley @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Frank Gore @ 2.10

NFL - 2012 Season Preview

NFC East

I’ll start with the division containing my team, the Redskins.

Washington are a work in progress, the Giants were a 7-7 team in Week 16 and staged miracle comebacks (I’m not buying that again) and, despite Wednesday’s showing, Dallas will flatter to deceive.

This leaves the Eagles, who have a chance to redeem last year’s performance. If Vick stays upright, they’re the bet.

Pick: Eagles @ 2.5

NFC South

Saints or Falcons? Two offensive juggernauts, but the whole bountygate fiasco and the reinstated players make me think New Orleans are going to be hungrier than ever.

Pick: Saints @ 2.38

NFC North

Fuggedabahtit.

Packers @ 1.5

NFC West

Remember when Alex Smith flared briefly in the QB firmament? Well those days are gone and while that tough defense will carry them so far, I’m going to take the Seahawks and their rookie QB to take this division. They can get it done on offense and their young defense will be eager to impose themselves. Crucially, their schedule will be a big help.

Pick: Seahawks @ 4.5

AFC East

Pats. Brady is aces and they’ve made a couple of nice moves on the defensive side.

Pick: Patriots @ 1.32

AFC South

Another division where one team will dominate. The Houston Texans are difficult to oppose and are worth a look to win it all.

Pick: Texans @ 1.29

AFC North

This Division is usually a punch up between Baltimore and Pittsburgh and that should still be the case this year, although it’s a competitive group with Cincinnati yapping in the background, unfortunately their second half schedule is terrifying and will stop them dead.

The Ravens also have a tough schedule (and who knows how no huddle will work out?) so I’m going to nominate the old(er) men in the picture. Pittsburgh just get it done, somehow.

Pick: Steelers @ 2.38

AFC West

If Peyton’s neck holds up, Denver can take this; however, I have my doubts and his inability to throw the deep ball or force it into holes that his peerless football talent sees may cause trouble. I just have to see more of him. The Bolts can get stuffed; until they fire their HC they’re going nowhere and Rivers knows it – he’s starting to look less sharp.

I’m going to go with Kansas in this one. The Chiefs are getting people fit, drafted some interesting personnel and have a young D and capable offense. It’s a stretch but …

Pick: Chiefs @ 4.5

------------------------------------------------

AFC Champions Patriots @ 4.00
NFC Champions Packers @ 4.33

Superbowl Packers @ 7.5; Texans @ 9.5

Spreads

A couple of schedule bets:

Regular Season Wins

I’ve mentioned it already, the Bengals hit a brick wall at half way.

Pick: Cincinnati Under 8 @ 2.00

Lost in the AFC East shakeup, I see the Bills taking advantage of a soft schedule.

Pick: Buffalo Over 8 @ 2.00

NFL - Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants Sky Sports 1.30am

Two teams I found tough last year, but Dallas are banged up and should find the champeens too strong tonight.

Dallas have made to some moves in the off-season to address their problems over the top on Defense, but Mike Jenkins may not go, and their big draft move for Morris Claiborne has been torpedoed by his injury problems; the Giants' depth out wide may see him tested. Orlando Scandrick is vulnerable too and this lack of established corners may be fatal.

Tom Coughlin will smash it up the middle as usual (look for David Wilson, he's got some moves) but Dallas can stop the run and Manning torched the Cowboys last year, so it's likely through the air that the home team will dominate.

There are caveats; I like DeMarco Murray a lot and if starts finding room he may give Dallas options deep, the Giants are also struggling at left tackle (never good news for a QB) and the front five generally look more suspect than I'd like with DeMarcus Ware and his buddies coming looking for Manning.

Similarly, the Cowboys need to keep Romo upright, he was sacked nine times when these teams met twice last season and so far the Cowboys' O line hasn't looked very stable, particularly the interior. The Giants have some personnel missing in the secondary and Romo has put up numbers against them in the past, but unfortunately the Dallas receiving corps has a number of injuries and off-field issues and isn't looking as dynamic as it should.

I don't like the fact that everyone is coming for the Giants (oppose the herd is the best bet in football!) but I'll give the points.

Pick: Giants -3.5 @ 2.00

Pick: 1st TD Victor Cruz @ 9.00
Pick: Anytime TD Hakeem Nicks @ 2.10