Sky Sports 2, December 4th, 6pm
I have to believe Roethlisberger was limited by his broken
thumb last week and the word is that he was struggling during practice this
week, he went 21/31/193 yards with a TD and INT. Today he goes up against a
thin Bengals secondary that is dinged up at the cornerback position and a
little ponderous over the middle. Look for some deep shots to Antonio Brown,
Mike Wallace (in particular) and Emmanuel Sanders who can exploit that lack of
pace at safety on the Cincinnati side. There’ll also be gaps over the top short
to Heath Miller against an aggressive Bengals pass rush – although Miller could
find himself on blocking assignments in an attempt to protect Big Ben who was
sacked five times in their meeting earlier in the season.
Cincinnati have suffered on the back end defensively, but
remain tough against the run and Mendenhall seems to have worn down recently by
the numbers; he gets the ball close in, though unless you take him to score
first, the price is too short. Pittsburgh have too much talent vertically to
rely on Mendenhall pounding the rock (although you shouldn’t rule him out after
the Browns got the Bengals for 137yds on the ground last week) so the
increasingly depleted Bengals’ pass D must hold up. One way to limit the damage
is by getting to Roethlisberger, but Ben has played error free football and
it’s difficult to rely on his mistakes these days.
‘Andy Dalton to A.J. Green’ – just typing it has me almost
involuntarily raising my arms to signal a touchdown. Dalton started well, and
is seemingly improving with every game. He had a difficult game last time
against the Steelers, but Green got hurt early and Dalton’s game has progressed
since then; he is composed in the pocket and makes good decisions and his line keep
him upright, giving up only 17 sacks this season. He’s one of the reasons the
Bengals boast a positive turnover number, and it’s worth highlighting the +1/-8
difference Cincy/Pittsburgh.
The matchup today between Green and Ike Taylor is heavily
weighted in Green’s favour, so Polamalu will doubtless be on Green like a rash
– and my feeling is the Steelers need Polamalu to play; Green is just too
dangerous.
Dalton will be facing a Pittsburgh defense that kept their
team in it last week and has started to engineer takeaways – something it
failed to do earlier in the season. The Steelers will be keen to make amends
for squeaking past Kansas by beating the hell out of a divisional rival at
home. James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley are going to be coming for Dalton and
again, the check down to Jermaine Gresham at Tight End may be a significant
outlet if the Bengals’ O line begins to wobble. Remember though, this is the
second ranked overall defense in the NFL and is 3rd against the pass and if the
numbers show a weakness in Dalton’s game, it’s that he is less good against the
toughest defenses – he’s thrown 12 picks all season, but five have been against
Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
There’s no really potent run game to fall back on for Cincy,
but Cedric Benson does see touches and can break off the occasional run, but
this is really a supporting role for Dalton and the aerial game (and Benson is
carrying an injury) Don’t discount Andrew Hawkins and Andre Caldwell in the
slot and even Jerome Simpson out wide for Cincinnati.
I like Pittsburgh, in a chilly PA, to show their playoff
credentials in this big Divisional game. There’s slightly more balance
offensively for the home team and their defense can give Dalton a real test. It
should be a cracker.
Pick: Steelers -7 @ 2.00; 100; Evens
Pick: 1st TD Antonio Brown @ 13; 1200; 12/1
Pick: Anytime TD Mike Wallace @ 2.00; 100; Evens
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