Sunday, 4 December 2011

NFL - Green Bay (11-0) at NY Giants (6-5)


Sky Sports 2, December 4th, 9.15pm

You think the Giants can do it again, like ’98 against the Broncos and ’07 against the Patriots? Nah, me neither. It might be nice to think that New York could break up another perfect season, but it looks like they’re carrying too many key injuries on defense to stop Green Bay’s juggernaut; Jason Pierre-Paul is outstanding, but he’s missing his buddy Osi Umenyiora. Justin Tuck is banged up and the line has been shuffled by Tom Coughlin. Rodgers will be merciless.

Eli Manning will likely be drawn into a shootout in an attempt to keep up, and Green Bay can give up plays downfield, but they do have a decent pass rush and are solid enough at the corners; Manningham being nicked up is a loss, but there’s still talent out wide. It’s doubtful that there’s enough, however. On the ground the Giants might see some success, with Green Bay giving up yards and carrying injuries at linebacker; the problem is that if they fall too far behind, the run comes out of the playbook.

The worry betting ATS with the Pack is that they tend to slow down at the end of the game and an easy cover suddenly becomes a tense 10 minutes as their ‘bend but don’t break’ defense sees the opposition driving without much trouble. However, there’s a little wrinkle here; if Green Bay win this one, they actually take the NFC North title and I’ll take that pot of gold to keep Aaron and his boys’ eye on the prize.

I’ve analysed the key players in this game so many times that another long write up is probably useless (as if it was ever anything else!) but I’ll trust in the Pack to put on one more show to clinch.

Pick: Packers -7 @ 2.00; 100; Evens

Pick: 1st TD Greg Jennings @ 8.00; 700; 7/1
Pick: Anytime TD Packers Defense @ 4.00; 300; 3/1
Pick: Anytime TD John Kuhn @ 2.75; 175; 7/4

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