Sunday, 18 December 2011

NFL - Washington (4-9) at New York Giants (7-6)


Sky Sports, December 18th, 6pm

Manning’s the man - he’s playing at a level I never believed he would (all the more impressive as he called the shot in the off-season) and he’s been so clutch this season that opposing him may be rather foolish, but I like the Redskins to cover here.

This call depends on the Washington pass rush getting home (Manning has found this matchup difficult) Roy Helu making hay against the weak Giants’ run defense and if the Redskins can weather the inevitable Rex Grossman mistake(s).

Grossman has thrown for at least 200 yards in each of his last five starts, and is clearly the best option Shanahan has on the roster. Rex took the Giants for 305 yards and 2 TDs in Week One and with Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora missing, he can get after a weak New York secondary with only (the admittedly excellent) Jason Pierre-Paul to worry him at the line. Look for Santana Moss to make some plays, because the big players will need to today if Washington are to push the home side.

Roy Helu is crucial: he will neutralise the pressure on Grossman and keep Manning off the field. The Giants have problems at line backer and Helu can get to the second level and make some big plays.

Eli Manning has weapons deep, and if he gets the ball out in any comfort he’ll allow Nicks, Cruz, Manningham and Ballard to prosper against a middling Redskins secondary. This means the Washington pass rush has to step up and cause Manning the sort of problems he had in the first game this season - Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan must get to the New York trigger man, who can get erratic under pressure.

The line has come in from -7 to -5.5 at some places, and I have to be honest, I don’t like moves off key numbers where the move is ‘against me’. I wouldn't bet this game normally, but if you must, keep stakes to a minimum.

Pick: Redskins +6 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Hakeem Nicks @ 9.0; 800; 8/1
Pick: Anytime TD Victor Cruz @ 2.00; 100; Evens

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