I don’t buy Tim Tebow as an NFL QB, but I do buy Denver's
astonishing late season momentum. You can get after Tebow, and force him into
mistakes and limit his game if you have a tight, aggressive defense ... and
tonight he goes up against New England.
Consider this; Brady is 1-6 against the Broncos and the Pats
are 2-15 in Denver. Bill Belichick is 3-10 against Denver as a HC. Tebow has
111.0 4th quarter passer rating, the best in the AFC and is 7-1 as a starter.
But it’s the Patriots to take this.
This is pretty simple for me; yes, the New England pass
defense is poor, but Tim Tebow and the Broncos are still a run first team. In
fact, Denver gives up more points per game than tonight’s opposition, and ranks
16th against the pass, a much more dangerous situation when it’s Brady under
centre than Tebow.
If Denver are to win, then they’ll have to pressure Brady
(who admittedly had a poor game last week by his standards) and then find a way
to limit Rob Gronkowski (Champ Bailey?) and the rest of the New England
receivers. Although the Pats have problems along the offensive line, they’re
keeping Brady relatively clean in the pocket, although they'll be challenged
tonight by Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.
The second aspect that needs to click for the Broncos is the
running game; obviously, this plays more to Tebow’s strengths and Willis
McGahee is set to go over 1000 yards on the season, but New England have some
run stoppers up front and I’d never want to outsmart Belichick out of the
backfield.
I’ll take New England to spoil the party, because this
stacks up as Brady against Tebow.
Pick: Patriots-7 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Wes Welker @ 8.5; 750; 15/2
Pick: Anytime TD Aaron Hernandez @ 2.62; 162; 15/8
No comments:
Post a Comment