NFL - Oakland (7-5) at Green Bay (11-0)

Sky Sports, December 11th, 9.15pm

Well, after one smartass pick, here’s another; I’m going to take on another juggernaut offense and look for a ‘back door cover’.

At this time of year, the most successful teams become very heavily favoured and attract large spreads; these numbers can be opposed, particularly where the favourite in question is prone to giving up points late. The bets tend to be pretty tense because if they hit, it’s during garbage time, when a team like the Pack have put up the usual 35+ points and they start to get even softer on defense.

I’ve looked at Green Bay so many times that again, I won’t go back over old ground. Suffice to say they continue to be unstoppable. The question is whether Oakland have the talent on each side of the ball to bring in the back door cover.

Much depends on Michael Bush, but he must get going early and the Raiders mustn’t get too far behind – teams are often so quickly behind against the Pack that they tend to ditch the running game and throw the ball in an attempt to keep up, and that will obviously not only limit Bush’s touches, but also remove the most successful element of the Oakland offense and the chance to keep Rodgers on the sidelines. Green Bay are carrying injuries at linebacker and rank 29^th against the run (YPC) so if Bush can get enough touches, he can put up the yards.

I was sceptical about Carson Palmer coming off the couch, but I was wrong – he’s proved more than capable and coped pretty well with the injuries to his primary receivers (another reason Bush may get touches tonight) but he’ll need all his experience today with only targets like Darrius Heyward-Bey, Chaz Schilens, Louis Murphy and Kevin Boss on offer. However, this is a beatable pass defense, even with Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams at CB, but look for some INTs from the Pack who specialise in take aways in the secondary.

The Raiders are coming off a prison pounding by Miami, and it was primarily the fins’ run game that did the damage, taking Oakland for 209 yards on the ground. Luckily, Green Bay don’t have much to offer in the running game (it’s not like they really need one) and James Starks is out, leaving Ryan Grant and Brandon Saine to carry the ball.

Oakland have powerful tackles and OLB Kamerion Wimbley is racking up sacks, so Rodgers may actually come under pressure from the 5^th ranked sack team, as his pass protection has not been great. Deeper, the Raiders’ aren’t as strong, and Rodgers will doubtless exploit the man coverage Oakland run, so again, the Raiders must keep him off the field for as long as possible.

Take the points and sweat it out in the fourth quarter.

Pick: Raiders +12 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11 (Boyles)

Pick: 1^st TD Greg Jennings @ 8.5; 750; 15/2

Pick: Anytime TD Green Bay Defense @ 4.00; 300; 3/1

Pick: Last TD Michael Bush @ 8.0; 700; 7/1