Thursday, 1 December 2011

NFL - Philadelphia (4-7) at Seattle (4-7)

Sky Sports, Friday 2nd December, 1.20am

I wrote in my season preview that getting the 'dream team' to play together would be difficult - that wasn't as smart as I'd like it to appear, because football teams are dogged (no pun intended) by huge egos and the idea of knitting together so many on one sideline was always likely to be a poor one.

As it is, we've seen a combination of injuries and petulance begin to blunt the Eagles so badly that they look easy to oppose tonight.

The running backs on either side are the most potent element on the respective offenses, but McCoy is banged up (and Reid still insists on passing first) and facing a tough front seven who can shut down the ground game and Marshawn Lynch is similarly facing an Eagles' D that has toughened up considerably against the run in recent games.

Attacking the Philly wide nine D should encourage the Hawks, and Lynch needs to run between the tackles and attack the great weakness of that scheme - the soft middle. The same flaw presents an interesting bet with Doug Baldwin, who can exploit the Eagles weakness over the middle in the passing game, operating as a slot receiver. Philly are carrying injuries in the secondary and Tarvaris Jackson will be asked to keep it simple, either handing it off, or passing short - the perfect look for Baldwin.

DeSean Jackson is acting up and managed to get benched last week, adding to Reid's problems (both men are on limited time imo) and to make things worse, in this pass-heavy O, he's started dropping the ball, missing some important catches last week - this is a particular problem because he's a big play receiver, but his talent can't be denied.

Vince Young is by no means as limited as Tarvaris Jackson, and he can make plays with his strong arm, but Seattle are pretty tight on D - although look for Brent Celek, who could have a big night.

Honestly, this a trappy game. Both teams are difficult to predict, because if key elements break down on offense, there's little room for manoeuvre. The only real value betting the game result is taking Seattle to win at home, but it's not a bet I love.

Pick: Seahawks SU @ 2.45; 145; 16/11

Pick: 1st TD DeSean Jackson @ 11; 1000; 10/1
Pick: Anytime TD Brent Celek @ 2.25; 125; 5/4

Pick: Doug Baldwin Over 55.5 yards receiving @ 1.88; -114; 7/8

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