NFL - Pittsburgh (10-3) at San Francisco (10-3)

ESPN, December 20th, 1.30am

Does Roethlisberger go? I think he will and I like Pittsburgh in this one.

IF HE DOESN'T, DON'T MAKE THE BET.

I’ll try to lay it out in brief, as I know these late night games aren’t favourite reading material!

It’s the defenses that will slug it out tonight – but the 49ers may be regressing having lost two of the last three (the continued absence of Patrick Willis is a blow) and the Steelers seem to be getting stronger.

The San Francisco D has astonishing numbers against the run (not a single rushing TD and no-one has taken them for 100 yards) but I expect Pittsburgh to throw everything at the niners’ front seven to at least check them (they will get after Ben like maniacs, especially with a sub-par Steelers’ O line) before throwing it to attack the home side’s safeties, who can be exploited by the speed of the Steelers’ wideouts. Look for a couple of big plays downfield.

It’ll be a delicate balance, because everyone in the backfield will be trying to keep Roethlisberger upright (there’ll be plenty of two TE sets and Ben in the shotgun) but it’s the sort of tactical change up typical in the NFL.

Pittsburgh will be without Harrison after his outrageous cheap shot, but Woodley should be back and they can pressure Alex Smith who hasn’t the speed of thought, or release, to cope with a collapsing pocket.

This Steeler D doesn’t take the ball away much, or get many sacks, but that has begun to come around and they can exploit a dubious SF O line who are letting Smith get sacked much too much - and tonight his blind side may be missing Joe Staley. Frank Gore is dinged up and the Steelers are tough to run on, so he should be neutralised and the 49ers don’t have the options deep available to Mike Tomlin.

Pick: Steelers +3 @ 1.83; -120; 5/6

Pick: 1st TD Antonio Brown @ 11; 1000; 10/1

Pick: Anytime TD mike Wallace @ 2.1; 110; 11/10

Pick: Total Match Sacks Over 5.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11