Sky Sports, December 8th, 1.20am
This is the time of year when I like to take the
double figure dogs on offer (particularly, if you bet in running, have a look
at these markets relatively late in the game when the favoured team has built a
lead – there can be some real value about) however, this isn’t one of those
occasions. Pittsburgh are looking to clinch the valuable first round bye and
Cleveland have just enough to mean that benching players late on is unlikely.
The Browns’ defense is getting manhandled on the
line and giving up yards on the ground and I expect Mendenhall and Redman to
see plenty of touches with Roethlisberger still nursing a broken thumb. Mike
Wallace and Antonio Brown out wide will still pose a significant threat (even
against Cleveland’s capable secondary) but much will depend on how dominant the
Steelers’ run is.
On the other side of the ball, Cleveland have real
problems: Hillis is severely limited physically
and battling the organisation over his contract. His direct running style is
rather easier for Pittsburgh’s linebackers who are less capable laterally.
Cleveland will mix it up with different schemes and personnel, but the Steelers
should cope.
Colt McCoy is in real trouble; he’s badly banged up
and his game has suffered accordingly. Whatever talent the Browns have out wide
(and there is some in Greg Little, Josh Cribbs, Mohamed Massaquoi and Jordan
Norwood in the slot) they’re going to struggle to get the ball as the aggressive
Steelers get after McCoy; with James Harrison coming off a three sack game,
McCoy may not even finish this one.
Frankly, Cleveland are overmatched in every area
here and a hungry Pittsburgh team could feast on them. I’ll give two TDs.
Pick: Steelers @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Rashard Mendenhall @ 4.5;
350; 7/2
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 2.25; 125; 5/4
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