Thursday, 8 December 2011

NFL - Cleveland (4-8) at Pittsburgh (9-3)


Sky Sports, December 8th, 1.20am

This is the time of year when I like to take the double figure dogs on offer (particularly, if you bet in running, have a look at these markets relatively late in the game when the favoured team has built a lead – there can be some real value about) however, this isn’t one of those occasions. Pittsburgh are looking to clinch the valuable first round bye and Cleveland have just enough to mean that benching players late on is unlikely.

The Browns’ defense is getting manhandled on the line and giving up yards on the ground and I expect Mendenhall and Redman to see plenty of touches with Roethlisberger still nursing a broken thumb. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown out wide will still pose a significant threat (even against Cleveland’s capable secondary) but much will depend on how dominant the Steelers’ run is.

On the other side of the ball, Cleveland have real problems: Hillis is severely limited  physically and battling the organisation over his contract. His direct running style is rather easier for Pittsburgh’s linebackers who are less capable laterally. Cleveland will mix it up with different schemes and personnel, but the Steelers should cope.

Colt McCoy is in real trouble; he’s badly banged up and his game has suffered accordingly. Whatever talent the Browns have out wide (and there is some in Greg Little, Josh Cribbs, Mohamed Massaquoi and Jordan Norwood in the slot) they’re going to struggle to get the ball as the aggressive Steelers get after McCoy; with James Harrison coming off a three sack game, McCoy may not even finish this one.

Frankly, Cleveland are overmatched in every area here and a hungry Pittsburgh team could feast on them. I’ll give two TDs.

Pick: Steelers @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Rashard Mendenhall @ 4.5; 350; 7/2
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 2.25; 125; 5/4

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