NFL - Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (4-0)

ESPN, Tuesday October 11th, 1am

Apparently, Cutler is getting sick of having the opposition jump up and down on him after outsmarting the tackle dummies that masquerade as his offensive line - 67 sacks in the last 20 games (15 this season) does that to a chap. The problem is the Lions have a fearsome defensive front that is likely to take that terrible Bears’ O line apart tonight.

Last week, Chicago put the ball in Forte’s hands and maybe the penny has dropped for Mike Martz. The Bears have to slow down the Lions’ offense and eating up the clock is the most obvious option – Forte is extremely effective, whether running or catching out of the backfield, so he’ll get the ball a lot, if only to protect Cutler.

However, Chicago will probably be playing catch-up and Cutler will be forced to throw – with potentially disastrous results. He was sacked four times in each game against Detroit last season and the prospects aren’t good tonight; Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Corey Williams and particularly Ndamukong Suh may violate the Bears’ QB – add in rookie first round pick Nick Fairley and this matchup should be R rated.

Megatron will have his usual stellar game. He is beginning to look unstoppable and even though Chicago aren’t bad deep, he can take anyone on. Stafford was shaky last week, and the Bears have a strong pass rush (Peppers knocked Stafford out of the game last season) so beyond Calvin Johnson, I expect Pettigrew to get looks if Stafford gets hurried. The Bears have been weak against the run, so Best should get involved too, to take the pressure off the passing game.

I am always nervous about giving points on MNF, dogs thrive on national TV, and it shouldn’t be forgotten that the Lions have had to rely on spectacular comebacks in their last two games, but they should have too much for Chicago.

Pick: Lions -5.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11 
*Update: The line is shifting out. It's at 6.5 now, which is ok, but I wouldn't follow it over 7. I don't like shifts off 'key numbers' and besides, it's too much to give up here.

Pick: First TD Calvin Johnson @ 6.0; 500; 5/1

Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Pettigrew @ 2.63; 162; 13/8