Philadelphia (1-3) at Buffalo (3-1)

NFL

Philadelphia (1-3) at Buffalo (3-1)

Sky Sports 2, Sunday October 9th, 6pm

I never liked the ‘dream team’ label, and now Vick feels the same way – a crumbling O line and a defense that doesn’t know Juan Castillo's scheme from a hole in the ground will do that to you. 

Bringing all the new blood into the defense, and struggling to properly define a role for  talent like CB Nnamdi Asomugha have made the Eagles into a 1-3 headache and it’s worth noting Vick has gone 1-5 L6 starts.

The Eagles rank 30th against the run and Fred Jackson should have a big day against a run D that is on its knees; their best run stuffer is injured, their linebackers are a shambles, with players being benched or looking frankly bewildered, and their safeties are falling off tackles.

 Ryan Fitzpatrick is prone to inconsistency, but with a questionable pass rush (again, injuries haven’t helped) there’s only Jason Babin to really concern the bills’ QB at the line. Downfield, it’s a mess for the Eagles who have allowed ten passing TDs already.

Andy Reid seems to have decided that Vick is going to carry more of the load, literally. That’s all well and good, and Vick can put up the numbers here, but he has to work awfully hard to avoid getting hammered. I don’t like these busted, free wheelin’ plays - not necessarily because they’re unproductive (it’s not late vintage Favre) but because Vick is likely to leave the game. Losing LT Jason Peters will be make things more awkward still, but at least the Bills aren’t going to bring much of a pass rush.

Buffalo have started well, but I’m not completely convinced. If you break down the numbers on defense; they rank 27th overall, 25th against the run and 24th against the pass, so Vick and LeSean McCoy and their pals should make hay, if they can sort their red zone offense out - Philadelphia ranks 24^th inside the opposition 20.

The Bills’ record is partly due to their turnover ratio, a number many NFL cappers swear by. Buffalo sit at plus-seven (the Eagles are at minus six) and crucially have capitalised on those turnovers by converting them into points.

There’ll be lots of offense and not a great deal of D in this game, but I think two things play against the Eagles here; Vick is going to be on his toes all afternoon, and the Bills are in a much better frame of mind than the vaunted Eagles who are grotesquely under-performing. Buffalo will make some plays on both sides of the ball on adrenalin alone, knowing they have the chance to put away Philadelphia and Vick.

I’ll take the points and buy the half.

Pick: Bills +3 @ 1.87; -115; 20/23

Pick: First TD Michael Vick @ 13.00; 1200; 12/1

Pick: Anytime TD DeSean Jackson @ 2.00; 100; Evens