NFL - New Orleans (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2)

Sky Sports 2, Sunday October 16th, 9pm

Drew Brees may put up big numbers tonight. Tampa have had problems defending the pass all season and they’ve lost some key defensive players for this game on the line and in the secondary. The Saints’ TE Jimmy Graham is having a great year and is catching a ton of passes – he’ll see it a lot again tonight and give the Bucs’ safeties a tough time (and Cody Grimm is out). With the loss of DT Gerald McCoy and with LBs Mason Foster (ankle) and Quincy Black (ankle) listed as questionable, the New Orleans’ offense should roll along nicely with Darren Sproles enjoying those linebacker issues.

Freeman was poor last week, and seemed flustered in the pocket, so expect to see the NO defense give him lots of different looks, with some exotic blitz packages; unfortunately for Freeman, RT Jeremy Trueblood has been overmatched so far. Freeman has undeniable talent, and the Saints can over-commit, allowing room in behind, but he doesn’t seem to be quite synching up with his receivers at the moment. Freeman is leaning heavily on TE Kellen Winslow, who matches up nicely.

LeGarrette Blount is out, so Earnest Graham gets the carries, but the Saints have been solid against the run, and if Tampa Bay get behind, he may be a bit player.

The Saints look as though they have too much here; with Brees under centre, he has size and power downfield and nice options at the line if he needs to change it up. The Buccaneers will come under pressure up front and Freeman needs to begin to find his receivers more consistently to really pose a threat.

I’ll give the points.

Pick: Saints -6 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: First TD Jimmy Graham @ 11.0; 1000; 10/1

Pick: Anytime TD Darren Sproles @ 2.3; 130; 13/10

Pick: Over 50 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11