NFL - San Diego (4-2) at Kansas City (3-3)

ESPN, Tuesday November 1st, 12.30am

The riddle of Rivers; what’s out of whack? His mechanics, his below par receivers, is he injured? Well, his numbers have been poor all season and I have a suspicion it’s a combination of all three and that tonight, some elements may come back together.

I had previously dismissed the theory that the lockout has adversely affected some teams – but I’m beginning to think I was wrong, and teams that had either brought a lot of new faces in, or where injury had prevented players from getting into synch, have taken time to come good this season; witness the ‘new’ Philadelphia.

I’m not going to suggest that was the only factor in the Eagles’ astonishing transformation, but it may have played, and it could happen here. Rivers has missed a fully fit Gates, and similarly Vincent Jackson must begin to get sharper (he was awful LTO) It’s not good that Malcolm Floyd has gone down, but Kansas don’t have a fearsome pass rush and have a secondary that misses Eric Berry badly, so this game may allow the San Diego offense to find some rhythm.

The Bolts can attack Kansas on the ground too (the Chiefs have given up 9^th most rushing YPG) and Mathews must get going to take the strain if Rivers is still misfiring; look for Tolbert close in.

Matt Cassel has been as uninspiring as Rivers, but he does have the formidable Dwayne Bowe out wide. Antoine Cason was violated by the Jets and if he starts (there’s no guarantee he will) he reflects a pass defense that can be beaten deep and struggles at safety. However, San Diego ranks 4^th in YPG given up to the pass, so Cassel will need to work for his yards.

The run game has been difficult for Kansas and is frankly a bit of a mess, but Jackie Battle looks like the way forward, he’s a big unit who likes to play a little smash mouth and the Chargers do sometimes struggle to bottle up the run.

In truth, by the numbers, there’s not a great deal between these two, but I think the slight edge San Diego have statistically reflects Kansas playing closer to their full potential than the bolts have managed so far, and I’ll take them to improve tonight and cover.

Pick: Chargers -3 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1^st TD Mike Tolbert @ 9.0; 800; 8/1

Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Gates @ 2.00; 100; Evens