NFL - Miami (0-4) at NY Jets (2-3)

ESPN, Tuesday October 18th, 1am

Picking games with ‘broken’ teams is nigh on impossible – witness last night’s hilarious Vikes/Bears game. If they were functioning, and vaguely capable of analysis, it gives the gambler a fighting chance – so this is another game I’d avoid.

However, I go where other cappers fear to tread ... and usually lose my shirt!

The Jets’ offensive coach is public enemy number one in New York, and just to really make things cosy, veteran wide receivers are criticising the O line for not giving Sanchez the chance to get the ball deep. Derrick Mason was promptly offloaded to Houston, but Santonio Holmes has picked up the theme, and the linemen have shot back. Not good.

Sanchez has been horribly inconsistent, but the fins have not put any pressure on opposing QBs this season, so he should get some time. The Jets haven’t really got the run game going either (this is part of the offensive confusion being laid at Brian Schottenheimer’s door) and Miami have surprisingly good numbers against the run, so I expect the Jets to take some looks deep if Sanchez can get the ball out, but they’ll need to get something going on the ground.

The problem is, Holmes has a point; the Jets’ O line does stink and to add to the Jets’ receiver problems, talented CB Vontae Davis is back for Miami. However, the Dolphins have given up big numbers against the pass.

Matt Moore. He also has a leaky line protecting him (the Dolphins have allowed 14 sacks and rank 28th in sacks per pass play) against a capable pass rush and he’s throwing it to a corps that isn’t familiar with him and includes his best receiver who has vowed to get ejected from the game in the 2nd quarter. What the hell!? As it is, Brandon Marshall will probably be stranded on Revis Island.

If Miami could get the run going, they’d have probably the most clear cut offensive threat in the game, because the Jets have been poor against the run. Unfortunately, Daniel Thomas is badly banged up and is questionable tonight, which suggests that even if he goes, he’ll be limited.

I hate giving the points on MNF and if Miami cover, I wouldn’t be at all surprised (the Vegas sharps are coming for the Dolphins, despite Joe Public smashing into the Jets) but I think the defensive edge should see New York home.

Pick: Jets -7 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1^st TD Santonio Holmes @ 9.00; 800; 8/1

Pick: Anytime TD Dustin Keller @ 2.62; 162; 13/8