NY Jets (2-1) at Baltimore (2-1)

NFL

NY Jets (2-1) at Baltimore (2-1)

Channel 4, Monday October 3^rd, 1am

Some tough picks this week, and this is no exception. Two QBs I can’t trust up against defenses that can capitalise on dubious O lines; it’s hardly a recipe for confident forecasting.

If you buy Flacco against the Rams last week, then there’s a case to be made for the home team. Torrey Smith was the story of week 3, but I suspect he’ll get rather closer attention from the Jets. That said, he has incredible speed and may be a deep strike threat for Flacco who will want to test Cromartie vertically – look for Ed Dickson in that role too. The word is that Anquan Boldin is heading for Revis island – so that’s that.

The Ravens’ O will go with Ray Rice. Oakland gave the Jets a rough time on the ground and if Rice can get rolling, then it may be that he provides not just the primary scoring threat, he can take the pressure off Flacco too, because there’s no doubt New York will come after him tonight with a vengeance.

Sanchez is developing, and the Jets seem happier to let him pass more often, but if New York wants to move the chains, they’ll have to get the ground game going – and that’s where the Jets’ O line problems will bite them. Mangold is a game-time decision and if he’s out, it will be a big hit to absorb in the run game. Holmes and Burress don’t inspire, even with Baltimore’s secondary carrying injuries, so expect Keller to get lots of looks from Sanchez as the Jets use short passes to try to move downfield, mixing it up with Shonn Greene, who has been disappointing, largely because of the O line injuries.

Just as the Jets will get after Flacco, I expect the Ravens to come marauding through the line looking for Sanchez, who gets sacked at a rate of about 3 times a game.

In a game like this, I’d prefer to have the points, and I think the Jets D might just be the difference, but it’s not a confident pick.

Pick: Jets +5.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: First TD Ray Rice @ 6.0; 500; 5/1

Pick: Anytime TD Dustin Keller @ 2.63; 162; 13/8

Pick: Buy Total Match Sacks @ 5 0.25pts/tick