NFL - Detroit (5-2) at Denver (2-4)

Sky Sports, Sunday October 30th, 8pm

It looks as though the Detroit train has eased up to the buffers, but I think some Denver coal may relight the boiler.

My primary concern in my season preview of the Lions was always Stafford, and although that focussed on his physical fragility, the pressure he has come under behind a weak line, has meant that his offensive powers have also suffered recently, with poor recognition and inaccurate throws, and that’s a big problem when your main threat is  Calvin Johnson.

Von Miller will be trying to get to Stafford all day and given the level the rookie LB has been playing at, he’s liable to get there – then Lions’ fans need to pray that he doesn’t knock Stafford out of the game. Megatron and Pettigrew should be able to profit from what is (outside Champ Bailey) a poor Denver secondary and Stafford is going to need his favourite targets to get it done, because he has no ground game to help him out, as Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams aren’t getting it done.

Now, Tim Tebow. I have to confess, I’m not convinced; he had a rough time last week, then came through at the end, and the world (well, Denver) seemed to put aside any doubts. Consider this though, that was against the Miami defense; Ndamukong Suh and his buddies are going to come after him with rather more punch tonight, and Tebow had better be on his toes.

Willis McGahee is out, and that means Timmy will likely be running even more (like Detroit, the help off the bench in the shape of Moreno is poor) and that makes me nervous because it plays to my prejudices against guys with questionable mechanics under centre who rely on natural guile to get out of trouble; it often means broken plays and eventually; catastrophe.

I’m going to play against Tebow.

Pick: Lions -3 @ 1.8; -125; 4/5

Pick: 1^st TD Brandon Pettigrew @ 13; 1200; 12/1

Pick: Anytime TD Tim Tebow @ 2.05; 105; 21/20