MLB - Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies ESPN 6pm

Of these two pitchers, Burnett has been stronger L3 and even though the Phillies have reached him the last two times he's pitched against them, he looks easier to trust than Kyle Kendrick, who has been poor. Utley doesn't seem to be slated to start.

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates @ 10/11; 1.9; -110

------------------------------------------------------

System Bets

A
Ari @ 2.05
Det @ 2.15
SD @ 2.0

(64-83, -4.58)

B
Cin @ 2.15

(14-19, -3.63)

C
Pit/Phil Under 8.5 @ 2.1
Ari/Atl Under 8.5 @ 1.95
Oak/Tex Over 11 @ 1.87

(59-50-4, +4.84)

MLB - Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins ESPN 6pm

Chris Sale is pitching well and has given the Twins a tough time. If the White Sox can find some form at the plate, the road team on the runline is the value.

Pick: Chicago White Sox -1.5 @ 20/21; 1.95; -105

------------------------------------------------------

System Bets

A
Tor @ 2.32
ChC @ 2.05
Sea @ 2.04
Ari @ 2.2
StL @ 2.21
Det @ 2.29
SD @ 2.06
Col @ 2.37

(64-75, +3.42)

B
Bal @ 2.12

(14-18, -2.63)

C
Mil/Cin Over 8 @ 2.05
CHW/Min Over 8.5 @ 2.0
Oak/Sea Over 7 @ 2.1
Pit/Phi Under 8 @ 2.0
Ari/Atl Under 7.5 @ 2.0

(57-47-4, +5.79)

System Bets 26th June

No live pick

A
Pit @ 2.28
Tor @ 2.45
Ari @ 2.25
ChC @ 2.22
SD @ 2.28
TB @ 2.09
Min @ 2.12
Oak @ 2.14

(63-68, +9.22)

B
Cle @ 2.41
SF @ 2.05

(13-17, -2.68)

C
StL/Mia Under 8.5 @ 2.1
Tor/Bos Under 11 @ 1.91
Was/Col Over 10.5 @ 1.91
Oak/Sea Over 7 @ 1.95

(54-46-4, +3.87)

MLB - Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels ESPN 8.30pm

I don't trust Harang (I should know, he's on one of my fantasy teams) He puts too many runners on and that's dangerous against the Angels. Richards has been strong since coming up, so I'll give the runs.

Pick: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 @ 5/4; 2.25; +125

------------------------------------------------------

System Bets

A
Min 2.4
Tor 2.3
Was 2.15
Atl 2.05
Cle 2.09
Mil 2.22
Sea 2.15

(59-60, +11.72)

B
TB 2.1 (Game 1)

(12-17, -3.78)

C
Min/Cin Over 9 @ 1.91
Det/Pit Over 7 @ 1.91
Was/Bal Over 9 @ 1.95

(52-42-4, +6.05)

MLB - Saturday Games 23rd June ESPN 6pm - 12am

Toronto @ Miami

Play the streak here. The Marlins are struggling and Toronto, who have won 5/7, look the value.

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays @ 7/4; 2.4; 140

Milwaukee @ Cincinnati

Brian Duensing is filling in, in a rotation that reeks and he doesn't inspire. The streak here plays against the Reds, but Cueto has good stuff. The Reds need to step up here and can reach Duensing.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

Washington @ Baltimore

Two lineups struggling to hit,facing two pitchers who are in form. Go Under.

Pick: Under 8.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

------------------------------------------------------

System Bets

A
Tor @ 2.45
KC @ 2.3
Pit @ 2.3
Atl @ 2.28
Mil @ 2.15

(57-57, +11.97)

B
Was @ 2.05

(11-17, -4.83)

C
Tor/Mia Under 8 @ 2.0
Det/Phi Over 8.5 @ 2.0
Cle/Hou Over 9 @ 1.91
Min/Cin Over 9 @ 2.0
Mil/CWS Over 9.5 @ 2.0
Was/Bal Over 8.5 @ 1.91
Sea/Sd Under 6.5 @ 1.87
ChC/Ari Over 9 @ 1.95

(49-39-2, +6.23)

MLB - New York Yankees at New York Mets ESPN 12am

Both these pitchers have put up nice numbers L3. Pettitte has only given up more than 3 runs twice in ten outings against the Mets and Niese blanked the Yankees on June 10 (two unearned runs).

I'll take the Unders at the price.

Pick: Under 8 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

------------------------------------------------------

System Bets

A
TB @ 2.25
Pit @ 2.1
NYM @ 2.25
StL @ 2.02
ChC @ 2.49
Sea @ 2.06

(54-55, +10.6)

B
Was @ 2.1
TB @ 2.25

(11-16, -3.83)

C
Tor/Mia Under 8.5 @ 1.87
Mil/CWS Under 7.5 @ 1.83
SF/Oak Over 7 @ 1.87
LAD/LAA Over 7 @ 1.91

(46-38-2, +4.62)

20th June - Wednesday's System Bets

A
Atl @ 2.35
Hou @ 2.06
Sea @ 2.47
Cin @ 2.12
Bal @ 2.14
LAD @ 2.09

(53-50, +14.25)

B
SF @ 2.4

(11-15, -2.83)

C
Atl/NYY Over 9 @ 1.83
Min/Pit Under 8 @ 2.0
Bal/NYM Over 8 @ 2.0

(44-37-2, +3.79)

MLB - Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies ESPN 12am

These two pitchers have stratospheric numbers L3, with WHIPs at 1.39/1.68 (Hamels/Outman) and ERAs of 6.75/7.94. Hamels' splits are better at home, but Outman has an 18.69 ERA on the road.

Go Over.

Pick: Over 8 @ 21/20; 2.05; 105 

 System Bets

A
Pit @ 1.98
Mia @ 2.38
KC @ 2.12
Tor @ 2.14
Sea @ 2.45

(49-49, +10.56)

B
StL @ 2.38

(11-14, -1.83)

C
Cin/Cle Under 9.5 @ 2.1
Bal/NYM Over 7.5 @ 2.0
KC/Hou Under 8 @ 1.95
Sea/Ari Over 9 @ 1.91

(41-36-2, +1.83)

18th June - Monday's System Bets

A
KC @ 2.05
ChC @ 2.17
SF @ 1.98

(47-48, +9.41)

B
SF @ 1.98

(10-14, -2.81)

C
Atl/NYY Over 8.5 @ 1.91
Bal/NYM Over 7 @ 2.0
Sea/Ari Over 9 @ 1.95

(41-33-2, +4.83)

MLB - New York Yankees at Washington Nationals ESPN 6.30pm

These are two pitchers with nice numbers, but I can't buck the Yankees' win streak, so I'll take them and the Unders at skinny enough odds.

Pick: New York Yankees @ 87/100; 1.87; -114
Pick: Under 8 @ 87/100; 1.87; -114

------------------------------------------------------

System Bets

A
Pit @ 2.25
Phi @ 2.23
Bal @ 2.1
TB @ 2.08
Ari @ 2.15
CWS @ 2.1
SF @ 2.05
ChC @ 2.12

(44-43, +10.98)

B
Bal @ 2.1
Was @ 2.06
SF @ 2.05

(9-12, -1.91)

C
Bal/Atl Over 8.5 @ 2.05
Mil/Min Over 8.5 @ 2.0
SD/Oak Under 8 @ 2.0

(39-32-2, +3.83)

MLB - Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins ESPN 7pm

I'd like to thank my reader for his hearty congratulations on my 10th successive winning pick. If you had let £10 ride on the selections, you'd now be £527 richer, apparently.

Just to prove my versatility, I'll now lose the next ten without the aid of a net.

This looks like Over; Michael Fiers has nice splits on the road, but the sample size isn't significant. Liam Hendriks has been aces in the minors this term, but has been hammered when he's pitched in the bigs. I'd like to see the Brewers be a little hotter at the plate, but they should be able to reach him.

The weather's a worry too, but I'm fearless.

Pick: Over 9.5 @ Evens; 2.0; 100

------------------------------------------------------

System Bets

A
Phi @ 1.96
Mil @ 2.09
KC @ 2.23
Col @ 2.43
CHC @ 2.35
Cin @ 2.00
Ari @ 2.23

(42-38, +13.89)

B
Phi @ 1.96
KC @ 2.2
Bal @ 2.41
Mia @ 2.23

(7-10, -2.55)

C
Mil/Min Over 9.5 @ 2.0
Col/Det Under 9 @ 1.95
Cin/NYM Under 8 @ 1.95
Mia/TB Under 7.5 @ 1.91
Ari/LAA Over 8 @ 1.83

(36-30-2, +3.02)

MLB - Boston Red Sox at Chicago Cubs ESPN 7.15pm

I like to oppose pitchers in their first few games back from TJ surgery and given Dempster's form lately, the Cubs look the value.

Chicago aren't scoring many runs, but the Red Sox are in a mini slump at the plate too, so I'll take the home dog.

Pick: Chicago Cubs @ 57/50; 2.14; 114 

 
System Bets

A
CHC @ 2.06
Phi @ 2.13
Min @ 2.05
Ari @ 2.47

(40-36, +13.36)

B
Mia @ 2.3
CHW @ 2.17

(7-8, -0.55)

C
Cin/NYM Under 8 @ 2.0
Mia/TB Under 7.5 @ 2.15
Hou/Tex Under 10 @ 1.91
Mil/Min Over 8.5 @ 1.91
Ari/LAA Over 7 @ 1.91
SF/Sea Under 7 @ 1.83
CHW/LAD Over 5.5 @ 1.83

(33-26-2, +4.45)

MLB - Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers ESPN 1am

Two pitchers in even worse shape than the two rag arms in the early game and that has pushed the totals' line out to 10.

Even so, with the hard hitting Texans on a roll and these two so fragile, I'll reluctantly take it on to see if I can land nine winning picks in a row :)

Pick: Over 10 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

MLB - Cleveland Indians at Cincinnati Reds ESPN 5.30pm

Two pitchers who don't inspire much confidence, pitching in Great American Ball Park, suggests Over.

Cleveland's hitting is a concern, but the weather is set fair and Dana DeMuth went 26-8 OU last year.

I'll roll with Over.

Pick: Over 9 @ 19/29; 1.95; -105

------------------------------------------------------

System Bets

A
Cle @ 2.15
Oak @ 2.0
Hou @ 2.2
KC @ 2.12
Phi @ 2.31
CHW @ 2.2
SD @ 2.21

(35-34, +9.52)

B
Mets @ 2.13

(6-8, -1.55)

C
Cle/Cin Over 9 @ 1.95
Mil/KC Over 8.5 @ 1.91
Phi/Min Over 9 @ 1.9

(32-24-2, +5.5)

MLB - New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves ESPN 12am

The Bombers are on a 5 game winning streak, the Braves are on a 3 game skid the other way. Hiroki Kuroda has pitched well L3, whereas Tim Hudson has a 5.06 ERA L3 and his ERA at home is nearly 6.

Respect the streaks and bet the hot hand on the road.

Pick: New York Yankees @ 100/107; 1.93; -107

MLB - Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays ESPN 5.30pm

Two teams heading in opposite directions. Stephen Strasburg is pitching beautifully and the Nats are hitting. Toronto are struggling to get runners home and may not get too many on base today in any case. Drabek has pitched well at home, but has poor numbers L3.

I'll give the runs.

Pick: Washington Nationals -1.5 @ 2.15; 115

------------------------------------------------------

System Bets

A
Cle @ 2.3
Bos @ 2.0
Det @ 2.0
Mil @ 2.01
Oak @ 2.01
SD @ 2.38

(31-32, +7.13)

B
Ari @ 2.51
CHW @ 2.21

(6-6, +0.45)

C
Pit/Bal Under 9 @ 1.87
Cle/Cin Over 9 @ 1.91
Bos/Mia Over 8.5 @ 1.83
CHW/StL Over 8 @ 2.0
Oak/Col Under 11 @ 1.95
SD/Sea Over 8 @ 2.0

(30-20-2, +7.8)

MLB - Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles ESPN 12am

The Bucs and the Birds, two teams punching above their weight - although the former may be for real (I've taken a little of the 16/1 available on the Pirates for the NL Central) while my O's look like they're heading for the usual half term engine strike.

This is an interesting matchup, with two pitchers who have flashed some decent stuff, but can get roughed up. Chen's splits at home are strong, Lincoln is better on the road, and these two have never faced these lineups, so it may be that one or both of tonight's starters can have a good game, but it's precisely that inconsistency that means I'll look for value in the Overs.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

------------------------------------------------------

System Bets

A
Was @ 2.38
Min 2.05
ChC 2.19

(28-32, +3.51)

B
No picks

(6-6, +0.45)

C
Pit/Bal Under 8.5 @ 1.95
Cle/Cin Over 8.5 @ 1.91
NYY/Atl Over 8 @ 1.91
Bos/Mia Over 8 @ 2.0
Ari/Tex Over 10 @ 2.15
Det/ChC Under 8 @ 1.91
Phi/Min Under 9 @ 2.00

MLB - Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds ESPN 1am

As my reader will know, I like left-handed rookies going through lineups for the first time. Well, Drew Smyly will test that preference with his performance dropping off a cliff this last month. The Reds haven't seen him before however, and Homer Bailey can't be backed at 1.8, so the Tigers are the bet.

The recent record of these two pitchers suggests Overs is value too.

Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 28/25; 2.12; 112
Pick: Over 9 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants ESPN 9pm

A similar pick to last night's - the opposing pitcher's splits are poor and the price on Ryan Vogelsong is attractive. In fact, it's so attractive it begins to look trappy, but the home team are the bet.

Pick: San Francisco Giants @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

------------------------------------------------------

System Bets

A
Bal @ 2.12
NYM @ 2.38
Cle @ 2.28

(23-27, +1.57)

B
No picks

(6-5, +1.45)

C
Tor/Atl Over 8.5 @ 2.1
Phi/Bal Under 9.5 @ 1.91
SD/Mil Under 9 @ 1.95
Det/Cin Under 7.5 @ 1.91
KC/Pit Over 7 @ 1.87

(23-12-1, +9.25)

MLB - Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox ESPN 12am

Felix Doubront has pitched well this season (although his splits suggest some vulnerability at home) but I can't resist Stephen Strasburg at the price.

Pick: Washington Nationals @ 100/103; 1.97; -103

 

System Bets

A
NYM @ 2.2
Hou @ 2.29
ChC @ 2.22
SF @ 2.25
KC @ 2.25
Det @ 2.26
TB @ 2.03
SD @ 2.46
Cle @ 2.33
Oak @ 2.35

(20-20, +4.92)

B
NYM @ 2.2
TB @ 2.03

(5-4, +1.42)

C
KC/Pit Over 7 @ 1.87
Det/Cin Under 9 @ 2.00
SD/Mil Under 8 @ 1.91
Tex/SF Under 7.5 @ 1.91

(22-9-1, +12.34)

MLB - Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers ESPN 6pm

Detroit are on a three game losing streak and Lowe is flashing good stuff against a team he's traditionally dominated. The road dog is the value.

Pick: Cleveland Indians @ 109/100; 2.09; 109

------------------------------------------------------

A
Cle @ 2.1
Bal @ 2.35
Was @ 2.13
ChC @ 2.05
Pit @ 2.49
Atl @ 2.26

(18-16, +6.17)

B
No selection

(5-4, +1.42)

C
Cubs/Mil Under 7.5 @ 2.00
TB/NYY Over 8 @ 2.1
Pit/Cin Uner 8.5 @ 1.91

(20-8-1, +11.24)

MLB - Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees ESPN 12am

I like Alex Cobb, he pitched well in AAA ball and carried that form into the bigs when he got called up to fill in when Jeff Niemann got injured, but the Yankees look dangerous and the Rays are a slightly faltering, error prone team of late.

Ivan Nova is less inspiring and has benefited from a ton of run support. He owns a 1.76/6.46 WHIP/ERA at home and looks vulnerable, but Tampa aren't hitting (.159 L5).

Cobb keeps the ball down and if he can avoid the long ball (and his team can play some defense) that and the Rays cold bats can keep this under.

Pick: Under 9 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

System Bets

3 systems, record in brackets:

A
TB @ 2.32
CWS @ 2.08
Min @ 2.47
Sea @ 2.41
Oak @ 2.38
LAD @ 2.03
Atl @ 2.4
Hou @ 2.25
Col @ 2.25

(13-12, +3.48)

B
LAD @ 2.03

(4-4, +0.39)

C
Cle/Det Over 9 @ 2.1
TB/NYY Over 9 @ 1.91
Tex/Oak Under 7.5 @ 1.91

(18-7-1, +10.23)

MLB - Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins ESPN 12am

Anibal Sanchez has better numbers on the season, but Tim Hudson has history on his side.

Sanchez is 4-10 lifetime against Atlanta with a 5.11 ERA and is 0-5 with a 6.23 ERA in his last six starts against Atlanta.

In contrast, Hudson is 11-4 with a 2.94 ERA lifetime against Miami and positively owned them in the old Sun Life Stadium.

The Marlins and Braves' lineups are hitting .298/.276 respectively against tonight's pitchers and I'm going to take the old man on the road and save it on the overs with the Marlins' hot bats.

Pick: Atlanta Braves @ 6/5; 2.2; 120
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

MLB - St Louis Cardinals at New York Mets ESPN 1am

The Cards are skidding, Jake Westbrook has been roughed up in his last two starts and St Louis haven't troubled the scorers in the first two of this series.

Jonathon Niese is 1-1 with a 2.63 ERA in three starts versus St. Louis at Citi Field.

The Mets look the value.

Pick: New York Mets @ 100/103; 1.97; -103

MLB - New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers ESPN 6pm

Verlander hit a little bump in the road at Boston last time out, but otherwise he has been very strong and his splits at home (0.66/1.37 WHIP/ERA) are stellar - he's 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA against the Yankees L3 at Comerica.

Offensively, Detroit are hitting a very respectable .311 L5 (.291 vs righties) and Phil Hughes looks vulnerable on the road with 1.58/6.57 WHIP/ERA away from the Bronx. Hughes also had a rough time last time out, and he has a strong record at Comerica, although the big beasts in the Tigers' lineup have hit him hard in the past.

Verlander will need to go deep tonight, because the Detroit bullpen stinks and having watched Papa Grande pitch like a limon grande last night (2BB, 2 hit batters and a blown save) Jim Leyland may look elsewhere; let's hope he doesn't need to worry about it though, because I'm going back to the runline.

Pick: Deroit Tigers -1.5 @ 13/10; 2.30; 130

MLB - Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies ESPN 9.10pm

The Rockies are ripping it up; when Dexter Fowler is 14 for 23 with three homers and nine RBIs in six games, then you know the cards are falling their way. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are in a slump where getting a runner home becomes a herculean task.

I'm tempted by the price for the Dodgers, but Colorado are on such a roll, they're difficult to oppose, but Nicasio can't be backed at 1.66.

Instead, I'll take on the towering total, with the home pitcher boasting a 7.04 ERA at Coors Field and Harang a 4.86 ERA on the road.

Pick: Over 10.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays ESPN 6pm

Felix Doubront has been solid this season. He has performed well against Toronto already this term and the Blue Jays are hitting just .232 against lefties L10.

Drabek has been a pleasant surprise, but got hit hard his last time out by the Rangers and the Red Sox may be gathering some momentum, despite injuries, hitting .326 L3 as they have gone above .500 on the season.

The 1.9 for Boston looks the value.

Pick: Boston Red Sox @ 10/11; 1.9; -110